sources and other modeling techniques we can extend this model over time to

Sources and other modeling techniques we can extend

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sources and other modeling techniques, we can extend this model over time to capture more of 529 the nuance and complexity behind mission risk factors. 530 The ANSP’s requirements for handling flight plan requests will dictate the time horizon on 531 which the model operates. Initially, this might be several days in advance of a mission to give a 532 human specialist time to manually review the request. The ANSP may issue a conditional 533 approval, assuming the proposed mission is able to show a similar set of outputs within hours of 534 the flight time. In particular, process would allow the operator to adjust their flight time to occur 535 during more favorable wind conditions, and to ensure their battery is sufficiently charged for the 536 duration and profile of the mission. Because of the different time horizons that may be involved 537 for the same flight, Annex A provides guidance on how to handle calculations when some 538 information may be missing. This same model should be able to handle risk calculations 539 immediately before takeoff. 540 The preflight risk model will be capable of informing automated flight approvals, but depending 541 on jurisdictional needs, an implemented version of it might produce a report to help a human 542 decide whether to approve a flight or not. We expect that as usage of this model grows, we’ll be 543 Figure 3. Architecture diagram of a near-term preflight risk service (“Risk Model Library”) used to inform automatic flight approvals.
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DRAFT – FOR EXTERNAL CONSULTATION 22 able to collect aggregate data on how well it performs and whether it is accurately capturing 544 operational risk factors. This is an important validation step that we cannot otherwise replicate, 545 even with the extensive testing and statistical analysis we plan to apply to the model before it is 546 deployed. 547 The data we collect will inform enhancements and improvements to future models: adding 548 variables, changing the relationships between them, and so on. This makes the preflight model 549 iterative, and it will be updated and version-tracked in this framework just like any piece of 550 software. Ultimately, we expect that the risk framework and derivative models will be managed 551 and updated by an international advisory or standards body, such as JARUS. 552 This preflight risk model will substantially inform the comprehensive preflight model. 553 554
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DRAFT – FOR EXTERNAL CONSULTATION 23 5. The Comprehensive Preflight Model 555 The comprehensive preflight model takes advantage of an increasing wealth of available data 556 about vehicles, missions and airspace usage that is shared between UTM services, operators and 557 data providers. It assumes that flight plans are automatically approved and amended by a flight 558 plan service component of a UTM. A key functionality here that doesn’t exist in the previous 559 model is that the outputs are used in optimizing a vehicle’s route, including deconfliction before 560 takeoff. 561 The plan-time deconfliction functionality assumes that an operator (autonomous or human) 562 submits a flight plan within a few minutes of actual takeoff. This allows the flight planning
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  • Fall '15
  • Operational risk, Altiscope

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