Medical sciences need a lot more trial and error where evidence is built up 1

Medical sciences need a lot more trial and error

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Medical sciences need a lot more trial and error, where evidence is built up 1 As far as the proof is verifiable and the verifiers can be trusted. The absolute certainty is here also decreased by the human factor: the proof is as certain as the quality of the provider of the proof and the verifiers of the proof. Automation shifts the problem to the tool, which also in some way originates in fallible human beings.
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30 RESEARCH IN SYSTEMS ARCHITECTING 5.3 hard soft mathematics physics medicine human sciences prove prediction statistics descriptive reasoning charlatan handwaving architecting methods example: security crypto biometric identification human factor certainty confidence evidence based plausible convincing no science soft science hard science legend Figure 5.3: Spectrum of sciences in extensive statistical studies. The evidence is hampered by many factors that influence the outcome of the medical study, but that are outside the control of the experimenter. Worse is that many of the factors are unknown to the experimenter and his peers. Cause and result are often more ambiguous than people realize. Despite all these disclaimers the medical sciences have created a large body of knowledge. The human sciences (psychology, sociology, pedagogy, et cetera) have already a tremendous challenge in making statements plausible. Human behavior shows a wide variation, depending on many factors, such as culture, age, gender, and status. Individual human behavior is often poorly predictable. Case descriptions are used in a heuristic approach. The step from case descriptions to a workable hypothesis needs a lot of interpretation. Adding more case descriptions will help in making the issue more plausible, but hard evidence is nearly impossible. A more experimental approach with small scale experiments is possible, but these experiments are often highly artificial. The scientific community dislikes the charlatans, who can be very convincing by hand-waving arguments, but in fact are selling hot air. Architecting integrates all of these different types of sciences, from mathe- matical to human sciences. For instance in security design cryptographic proof is important, and also biometrics authentication. However a security solution that does not take the human behavior into account fails even before it is implemented. Research of architecting methods is inherently the combination of hard facts
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5.3 CHALLENGES TO DO RESEARCH IN A SCIENTIFIC WAY 31 in an environment full of soft factors. Most of present-day hard disciplines (math- ematics, physics, electronics, mechanics, et cetera) are frightened away by the soft factors. Most of the soft disciplines (psychology, philosophy, business manage- ment) have no affinity with the complexity in the hard facts. The challenge in the systems discipline is to tackle the soft factors, with sufficient understanding of the hard side.
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