Technology would not meet expectations and would have

technology would not meet expectations and would have to
be fundamentally changed. As market prices for the product
66
MIT SLOAN MANAGEMENT REVIEW WINTER 2002
•Learning and response
•Exchange of unstructured
information along emerging
interfaces
•Flexible use of methods to
reap upside rewards
•Tracking assumptions and
unknowns
Acer Mobile
Systems Unit
PC Notebooks
Alpex
Pharmaceuticals
Ladera Ranch
Earth Moving
IhrPreis.de
Internet
How Management Style Changes
•Planning and anticipation
•Exchange of structured
information along defined
interfaces
•Fulfillment of targets
•Tracking progress
Chaos
Unforeseen
Uncertainty
Foreseen
Uncertainty
Variation
How Management Style Varies With Uncertainty Profile
Knowing your project’s uncertainty profile — ranging from simple variation to
outright chaos — will help you choose the right management strategy.
For the exclusive use of K. Haskins, 2015.
This document is authorized for use only by Kai Haskins in Babson SME TOM taught by Jennifer Bailey, Babson College from August 2015 to December 2015.

collapsed, the third partner pulled out. Cleveland-Cliffs and
Lurgi wavered. They agreed to continue only after an elaborate
trust- and team-building effort. Lurgi’s efforts to rethink the
technology finally bore fruit in March 2001. The plant began to
produce volume and now has business potential, although
world market prices are still down.
One manager reflected, “Why did we all agree to go through
this pain? Only because we all underestimated what was ahead
of us. The risks we thought we were facing turned out to be
irrelevant; the problems that did hit us were unexpected; and
the outcome was different from the original idea.”
Striking a New Balance
Though many projects are characterized by one dominant type
of uncertainty, they often will display a blend of types. Managers
must be flexible enough to adopt the right approaches at the
right time. The challenge in managing uncertainty, to whatever
degree, is to find the balance between planning and learning.
Planning provides discipline and a concrete set of activities and
contingencies that can be codified, communicated and moni-
tored. 12 Learning permits adapting to unforeseen or chaotic
events. The two require different management styles and project
infrastructure. Projects in which variation and foreseen uncer-
tainty dominate allow more planning, whereas projects with
high levels of unforeseen uncertainty and chaos require a greater
emphasis on learning. (See “How Management Style Varies With
Uncertainty Profile.”) Openness to learning is new to many com-
panies. But it’s obvious from the many spectacular project fail-
ures that the time has come to rethink some of the traditions in
project management. In an era of rapid change, uncertainty is a
rule, not an exception. Companies that understand that have the
greatest chance to produce spectacular project successes.