Managers know that there is an almost 37 chance of a

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Managers know that there is an almost 37% chance of a sale within every hour. They need to determine how much staffing it takes to sell a car every hour or less. Given that it takes several potential buyers and often multiple visits to the dealership to sell one car and that it is relatively likely (probability almost 75%) that they will close a sale every 3 hours ( x 0 = 1), the dealership should never go without having salespeople around and may have to have several employees around all the time. By having good exponential and Poisson distribution data, one can, to some extent, track the impact of advertising on sales by testing values of λ using random arrival data in time periods following advertising to determine if λ has increased. For example, if λ = 1.37 every 3 hours but following a advertising campaign, there is a randomly selected 3 hours period and 5 cars are sold, then management might be able to statistically justify that the λ has increased and then conclude that the advertising campaign was the cause. In many businesses, the value of lambda changes with time of day, day of the week, and season of the year. In the car business, there may be an increase in sales on the weekend, in the evening, or perhaps in the fall when new models arrive. Students should always be cautioned about using the same value of lambda for all time periods. Many students know intuitively that lambda varies over time.

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Case Notes 16 Chapter 7 Shell Attempts to Return to Premier Status 1. The answers to this question will vary. Students should select one of the four types of random sampling or a hybrid (eg. area – stratified) to use in their sampling plan. The target population is that group of people that the researcher want to be able to infer to. For example, if Shell wants to impact all adults in the U.S., then all adults in the U.S. should be their target population. The frame is the list or roster of this target population from which the researchers sample. What is the frame of all adults in the U.S.? This is a difficult question. Many national lists involve some specialty group such as registered Republicans, Visa card users, Internet users, Catholic church members, etc. which really do not capture all U.S. adults. Instead of searching for a national frame, the researcher may want to use some form of area sampling such as selecting a test market city which is thought to be similar in demographics to the U.S. This might make frame identification easier because some test market city directory such as the phone book or voter registration list might be accessible and include most adults. As an example of two-stage sampling, researchers could randomly select a few test market cities and then sample every 100 th name from the phone book or interview everyone from a few randomly selected blocks within the test market city.
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