Paper Industry Report 2018 (1).pdf

Industry research i paper 9 rapidly increasing

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Industry Research I Paper 9 Rapidly increasing Imports along with steady Exports and domestic production indicates incremental domestic demand is being met through imports Source: Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistic, CMIE As per Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS) data, total imports in FY17 were up 36% over FY16. As far as ASEAN imports were concerned, there was a surge of 67% in FY17 numbers over FY16. Imports from China have increased by 44%. Imports reached 1.1 million tonnes in the first half of 2017-18 as against 650 thousand tonnes imported in the first half of 2016-17, indicating an increase of approximately 69%. This increase in imports has been led by the duty-free import from ASEAN countries (which doubled from 80,000 tonnes to 210,000 tonnes during the said period) coupled with unavailability of raw materials domestically. The domestic newsprint industry is less competitive against the imported one, given nil customs duty imposition on the imports of newsprint (The 2.5% customs duty on paper in India was brought down to zero; as per the terms of the free trade agreement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)). With imported price realisations remaining steady, the share of imported newsprint in the total domestic newsprint consumption increased sharply from 50% during FY13 to 60% during FY16. Source: Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistic, CMIE 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 2.6 64 63 60 69 72 66 41 0 2 4 6 8 0 1 2 3 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Chart 12: Imports - Paper (excl. newsprint) Paper (excl. newsprint) (mn tonnes) Paper (excl. newsprint) (Rs kg) 1,250 1,432 1,241 1,379 1,336 1,497 1,584 30 35 35 39 38 35 36 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Chart 14: Imports - Newsprint Newsprint ('000 tonnes) Newsprint (Rs kg) 11.0 9.9 8.6 3.8 9.6 5.1 4.4 30 33 39 40 51 35 37 0 20 40 60 80 0 5 10 15 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Chart 15: Exports - Newsprint Newsprint ('000 tonnes) Newsprint (Rs kg) 0.62 0.55 0.55 0.58 0.68 0.72 0.79 39 46 52 60 56 57 53 0 25 50 75 0 1 2 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Chart 13: Exports - Paper (excl. newsprint) Paper (excl. newsprint) (mn tonnes) Paper (excl. newsprint) (Rs kg)
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Industry Research I Paper 10 Paper and Paper Products Price Movement Table 3: Domestic Prices Kolkata (Rs. / kg) Year Newsprint Chromo Paper Maplitho (60 gsm) Duplex HWC Board (296-350 gsm) Duplex LWC Board (296-350 gsm) 2011-12 31 67 55 50.7 39.1 2012-13 31 64.4 59 48.5 37.5 2013-14 36 65.4 61.6 49.3 40.1 2014-15 39 65 67.5 52.5 44 2015-16 39 65 67.5 52.5 44 2016-17 39 65 67.5 52.5 44 Source: CMIE Table 4: WPI (2011-12 series) Index Movement FY13 FY17 CAGR Man. of paper and paper products 103.6 113.6 2.3% a. Man. of pulp, paper and paperboard 103.3 117.7 3.3% Newsprint 105.1 112.5 1.7% Paper for printing & writing 102.7 119.3 3.8% Kraft paper 102.0 117.7 3.6% Tissue paper 103.4 125.1 4.9% b. Man. of corrug. paper and paperboard 107.7 114.7 1.6% Corrugated paper board 100.6 119.9 4.5% Paper carton/box 100.7 127.5 6.1% c. Manufacture of other articles 99.9 105.9 1.5% Duplex paper 96.1 98.8 0.7% Map litho paper 105.4 118.9 3.1% Source: Office of the Economic Adviser, Govt. of India, Ministry of Commerce & Industry The prices of various varieties of paper in Kolkata market remained unchanged in 2015-16, which is likely to have continued in 2016-17. Paper companies did not undertake price hikes because of factors such as competition from imports, stabilisation in wood prices and lower power & fuel cost. Nonetheless, paper prices are projected to rise marginally in 2017-18. Even though stiff competition from imports is likely to persist, an anticipated rise in wood prices along with higher power & fuel cost would compel paper manufacturers to undertake price hikes.
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