39
Vazquez, M., Ignacio, RS (2008), “Photovoltaic module reliability model based on field degradation studies,”
Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, Vol. 16, pg. 422; Sample, T. (2011), “Failure modes and
degradation rates from field-aged crystalline silicon modules”, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL),
US.
40
It should be noted that the high derating factor utilized in the low LCOE case is based on NASA estimates for
temperate regions with high peak sun hours, and hence is not applicable to Singapore conditions. In other words,
the low LCOE case is illustrative and very unlikely to be attainable under Singapore’s meteorological
conditions. See Appendix A for a more detailed explanation on derating factors.

21
Figure 10
LCOE for the low, base, and high case (@ 5% and 10% discount rate)
Note: Base case assumptions are 13.5% for module efficiency, 69.2% for derating factor, 60% for module
cost/investment cost ratio, 0.75% annual degradation rate. Low case assumptions are 15% for module
efficiency, 77% for derating factor, 70% for module cost/investment cost ratio, 0.5% annual degradation rate.
High case assumptions are 12% for module efficiency, 61.4% for derating factor, 50% for module
cost/investment cost ratio, 1% annual degradation rate. Module cost is assumed to be US$2.5/Wp in 2010.
31.17
43.51
41.41
57.52
57.30
79.21
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
LCOE (2010 S¢/kWh)
5% discount rate
10% discount rate
2010 Electricity
tariffs
S23.48¢/kWh
Low
Base
High
Low
Base
High