A large literature analyzes the theoretical

This preview shows page 22 - 24 out of 42 pages.

A large literature analyzes the theoretical relationship between the number of siblingsand educational attainment.However, there are few empirical studies from developingcountries that use natural experiments to establish causal estimates of the e/ect of fertility onyears of schooling. Using data from India, Rosenzweig and Wolpin (1980) and Rosenzweigand Schultz (1987) °nd that an exogenous increase in fertility due to the birth of twinsdecreases the level of schooling for all children in a household. Unfortunately, they do notprovide estimates in a form that can be imported into our model.In addition, this workhas faced criticisms due to the imprecision of estimates arising from a small sample size andmethodological problems such as not controlling for birth order.To assess the change in fertility in which we are interested, we use results from Joshiand Schultz (2007), who analyzed a randomized intervention in Matlab, Bangladesh. Theyfound that a TFR reduction of 15 percent, resulting from the intervention, led to an increaseof 0.52 years of schooling for males aged 9-14.14To give an example of how this °nding isincorporated into our model, notice that in the UN medium-fertility variant, the TFR fallsfrom 5.61 in 2005³2010 to 5.43 in 2010³2015, a reduction of 0.18. Since this corresponds toa reduction of 3.2 percent in the TFR for Nigeria in 2005, the relevant increase in schoolingover this period is0:52²3:215:0= 0:11years of schooling. In the low-fertility variant, however,the TFR falls to 5.18 in 2010³2015, or a reduction by 0.43. Using a similar calculation, theincrease in years of schooling under the low-fertility variant is 0.27. As fertility continuesto fall over time in the two scenarios, years of schooling increases, with the increase beinglarger for the low-fertility scenario because it features a larger decline in fertility.4.4Childcare e/ects on labor supplyRaising children requires a good deal of labor. That labor is spread over many years andis divided among many individuals, but the largest piece usually comes from the child¶smother. Reduced fertility should thus potentially increase the labor supply of women. Alarge literature has examined the e/ect of fertility on female labor supply in developed14This coe¢ cient of 0.52 is derived from Table 9, Column 2 in their paper. They report a standardizedbeta of 0.54, to which we apply the standard deviation for years of schooling of 0.95 from their summarystatistics.21
countries. Generally, these studies °nd a moderate to large negative e/ect.15However, littleresearch has been done to assess the e/ect of fertility on female labor supply outside ofEurope and the United States.16Beyond the general lack of research in this area, assigning a quantitative magnitudeto the e/ect of fertility on female labor supply is di¢ cult for several reasons. Child-rearingis often combined with other productive activities, and even when time is spent exclusivelyon child-rearing, this time may be subtracted from leisure, rather than production. Most

Upload your study docs or become a

Course Hero member to access this document

Upload your study docs or become a

Course Hero member to access this document

End of preview. Want to read all 42 pages?

Upload your study docs or become a

Course Hero member to access this document

Term
Spring
Professor
Lydia Ashton

  • Left Quote Icon

    Student Picture

  • Left Quote Icon

    Student Picture

  • Left Quote Icon

    Student Picture