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5. OUTCOMES OF THE SCENARIO5.1. Clean Coal Technology Share BAU scenario shows that based on projected yearly growth basis, share of Ultra Super-Critical technology (USC) in total generation capacity of 848 GW in 2032 &1566 GW in 2047 be 35% in 2032 & 60% in 2047. However, share of IGCC technology is projected to be lower at 10% in 2032 & 40% in 2047. CCT scenario shows that the USC will increase to 45% in 2032 & 40% in 2047 and share of IGCC technology will be 15% in 2032 & 60% in 2047. The share of USC is slowly being 21As per CEA, National Electricity Plan Report 22As per CEA, National Electricity Plan Report 23As per CEA, National Electricity Plan Report 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%203220472032204720322047203220472032204720322047BAUCCTBAUCCTBAUCCTSUPER CRITICALULTRA SUPER CRITICALIGCCFigure 1: % Share of Clean Coal Technologies (year on year basis)109
replaced by IGCC under CCT scenario. The Sub-Critical technology in coal based power plant is projected to retire by 2032.5.2 Fund Requirement for Clean Coal TechnologyThe capex requirement per GW, under IGCC technology will be nearly twice over Sub-Critical technology & Super-Critical technology by 2047 in CCT scenario. The capex per GW, under Ultra Super-Critical technology will be nearly 1.2 time higher than Sub-Critical technology & Super-Critical technology by 2032.Moreover, IGCC & Ultra-Super Critical technology will increase nearly 10 percentage point’s efficiency of the power plant in comparison to Sub-Critical & Super Critical technology. The IGCC & Ultra Super-Critical technology will reduce nearly 30% coal requirement emissions by around 30-50% across NOx, SOx, CO, Particulate Matter and Raw Water Usage.5.3 Land RequirementThe land requirement for clean coal technologies will depend upon the designing of power plant. For example, if vertical/tower type boiler is taken into design (like ISOGO Power Plant, Japan) then land requirement may reduce by around 30-35% for the Ultra Super-Critical technology.5.4 Coal Consumption and Import DependenceThe above mentioned CCT share in CCT scenario will reduce 33% coal import for coal power generation. The hydro carbon fuel requirement by power sector will also reduce by nearly 30% in 2032 & 39% in 2047 at 2012 base level. Fund Requirement for Clean Coal Technology(Rs. Crore per GW)Super CriticalUlraSuper CriticalIGCCYear2032020004000Rs. Crore60008000100001200014000160002047Figure 2110
Figure 3: Coal Consumption Figure 4: Import Dependence33% Reduction from Coal Dependence in CCT0%201217%17%36%31%64%9%2032BAU - IMPORT DEPENDENCE OF THE COAL (%)CCT - IMPORT DEPENDENCE OF THE COAL (%)204710%20%30%40%50%60%70%05001000201220322047MT EQ15002000250030003500BAU - COAL CONSUMPTION (Mt.)BAU - HYDRO CARBON FUEL EMISSION BY POWER SECTOR (Mt.eq.)CCT- COAL CONSUMPTION (Mt.)CCT - HYDRO CARBON FUEL EMISION BY POWER SECTOR (Mt.eq.)2012.8112012.5242032, 783.82032, 9382032, 14212032, 17202047, 29052047, 17692047, 1019.42047, 750.9111
5.5 Emission ReductionDue to intervention of clean coal technologies, emission intensity will reduce by 38% in 2032 & 52% in 2047 at the base level of 2005 emission intensity under CCT scenario.