5 OUTCOMES OF THE SCENARIO 51 Clean Coal Technology Share BAU scenario shows

5 outcomes of the scenario 51 clean coal technology

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5. OUTCOMES OF THE SCENARIO 5.1. Clean Coal Technology Share BAU scenario shows that based on projected yearly growth basis, share of Ultra Super-Critical technology (USC) in total generation capacity of 848 GW in 2032 &1566 GW in 2047 be 35% in 2032 & 60% in 2047. However, share of IGCC technology is projected to be lower at 10% in 2032 & 40% in 2047. CCT scenario shows that the USC will increase to 45% in 2032 & 40% in 2047 and share of IGCC technology will be 15% in 2032 & 60% in 2047. The share of USC is slowly being 21 As per CEA, National Electricity Plan Report 22 As per CEA, National Electricity Plan Report 23 As per CEA, National Electricity Plan Report 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2032 2047 2032 2047 2032 2047 2032 2047 2032 2047 2032 2047 BAU CCT BAU CCT BAU CCT SUPER CRITICAL ULTRA SUPER CRITICAL IGCC Figure 1: % Share of Clean Coal Technologies (year on year basis) 109
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replaced by IGCC under CCT scenario. The Sub-Critical technology in coal based power plant is projected to retire by 2032. 5.2 Fund Requirement for Clean Coal Technology The capex requirement per GW, under IGCC technology will be nearly twice over Sub-Critical technology & Super-Critical technology by 2047 in CCT scenario. The capex per GW, under Ultra Super-Critical technology will be nearly 1.2 time higher than Sub-Critical technology & Super-Critical technology by 2032. Moreover, IGCC & Ultra-Super Critical technology will increase nearly 10 percentage point’s efficiency of the power plant in comparison to Sub-Critical & Super Critical technology. The IGCC & Ultra Super-Critical technology will reduce nearly 30% coal requirement emissions by around 30-50% across NOx, SOx, CO, Particulate Matter and Raw Water Usage. 5.3 Land Requirement The land requirement for clean coal technologies will depend upon the designing of power plant. For example, if vertical/tower type boiler is taken into design (like ISOGO Power Plant, Japan) then land requirement may reduce by around 30-35% for the Ultra Super-Critical technology. 5.4 Coal Consumption and Import Dependence The above mentioned CCT share in CCT scenario will reduce 33% coal import for coal power generation. The hydro carbon fuel requirement by power sector will also reduce by nearly 30% in 2032 & 39% in 2047 at 2012 base level. Fund Requirement for Clean Coal Technology (Rs. Crore per GW) Super Critical UlraSuper Critical IGCC Year 2032 0 2000 4000 Rs. Crore 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 2047 Figure 2 110
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Figure 3: Coal Consumption Figure 4: Import Dependence 33% Reduction from Coal Dependence in CCT 0% 2012 17% 17% 36% 31% 64% 9% 2032 BAU - IMPORT DEPENDENCE OF THE COAL (%) CCT - IMPORT DEPENDENCE OF THE COAL (%) 2047 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 500 1000 2012 2032 2047 MT EQ 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 BAU - COAL CONSUMPTION (Mt.) BAU - HYDRO CARBON FUEL EMISSION BY POWER SECTOR (Mt.eq.) CCT- COAL CONSUMPTION (Mt.) CCT - HYDRO CARBON FUEL EMISION BY POWER SECTOR (Mt.eq.) 2012.811 2012.524 2032, 783.8 2032, 938 2032, 1421 2032, 1720 2047, 2905 2047, 1769 2047, 1019.4 2047, 750.9 111
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5.5 Emission Reduction Due to intervention of clean coal technologies, emission intensity will reduce by 38% in 2032 & 52% in 2047 at the base level of 2005 emission intensity under CCT scenario.
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