and production capacity from program participants. Year-on-year cost reductions were monitored, and program participants were asked to assign the proportion of annual cost savings passed to consumers via reduced prices or retained as increased profits. Cumulative cost savings estimates were compared with cumulative industry and public costs to gauge the timing of DOE investment recovery. The second study (Friedman et al., 2005) updated the results of Witt et al. (2001) with historical data from 2001 to 2005. 13 The cost-per-watt results from Friedman et al. (2005) formed the baseline manufacturing costs per watt for 1992–2005 employed in our economic analysis The baseline scenario presented in Section 5 also provides data points for 1974–1991 and 2006–2008. The current work conducted extensive interviews with industry, government, and academia to assess how industry progress would be different without DOE’s investment. Two recent papers, one by Nemet (2006) and one by van der Zwaan and Rabl (2004), address the rapid rate of learning and highlight the challenges of decoupling technology advancement and learning by doing from the influence of production scale, materials prices, and capital expenditures, for example. Thus, we proceeded duly cautioned about the interplay between technology development and production scale.
Retrospective Benefit-Cost Evaluation of DOE Investment in Photovoltaic Energy Systems 1-6 Figure 1-1. Results from 2005 DOE Investment Recovery Analysis PV Manufacturing R&D Project Recapture of PV Industry Manufacturing Cost/Capacity DOE Module R&D Funding c-SI PV Manufacturing Cost/Capacity Thin-Film PV Manufacturing Cost/Capacity Source: Friedman et al. (2005). 1.3 Report Organization The remainder of this report is organized as follows: Chapter 2, Background Information on Photovoltaics, offers a brief primer on PV technologies and terminology for readers without a background in photovoltaics. Chapter 3, Evaluated PV Module Technologies and DOE Technology Development Initiatives, reviews technologies, technical accomplishments, and the history and rationale for DOE technology development activity. Chapter 4, Methodology Overview and Economic Analysis Framework, describes the methods used in our analysis. Chapter 5, Economic Analysis Results, provides our assumptions, estimation procedures, and findings from the economic analysis. Chapter 6, Environmental Health, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy Security Benefits, describes the use of the Co-Benefits Risk Assessment (COBRA) model to estimate health effects from photovoltaics and presents the results as well as energy security and other environmental benefits.
Chapter 1 — Introduction 1-7 Chapter 7, Knowledge Linkages and Benefits, presents summary knowledge benefits linkages based on patent and citation analysis. Chapter 8, Summary Results and Concluding Remarks, presents the conclusions of the study.
2-1 2. BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON PHOTOVOLTAICS For readers without a technical background in PV technologies, this chapter provides a primer on photovoltaics, different PV materials technologies, and important terms and concepts. This material is not
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- Photovoltaics, Solar cell