1 you are the sales manager for tom turkey farms

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1. You are the sales manager for Tom Turkey Farms, which is a major producer of turkey food products. Discuss the reasons why you might prefer to use time-series decomposition to generate sales forecasts. In
your answer address each aspect of the time-series decomposition procedure.
1. Consider the following sales data measured in millions of dollars: Period Time Index 1999Q1 1 1999Q2 2 1999Q3 3 1999Q4 4 2000Q1 5 2000Q2 6 1. a) Find a four-period moving average for each quarter.
1. b) Find the centered moving averages for the sample.
1. c) Find the seasonal factors for Q3 and Q4 of 1999? Can you find the seasonal factor for 2000Q1?
Seasonal factors of Q3 and Q4 of 1998 are found as follows: SFt = Yt/CMAt.
Accordingly, our Q3 and Q4 seasonal factors are: PERIOD SEASONAL FACT 1999Q3 20/15.5 = 1.29 1999Q4 12/15.75 = 0.76 These factors suggest that sales are above the yearly average in Q3 and below the yearly average in Q4. Note that since these factors are calculated based upon data for Q3 and Q4 of 1999, they must be smoothed with similar estimates from other periods to calculate the Q3 and Q4 seasonal index numbers. 1. Quarter 3 seasonal factors for sales of Gerber baby foods were reported to be: YEAR SEASONAL FACT 1996 1.25 1997 1.13 1998 1.03 1999 1.32 2000 1.24 1. a) What is the unadjusted seasonal index for Q3 sales?

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