CA2320EN.pdf

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at the two support regimes, the price support period 2010-2015 saw maize production increase by 27 percent. On this occasion, area expansion was by far the most influential factor in the output increase. However, during 2016- 2018, maize production fell by 1 percent. The negative sign on the yield coefficient should not be interpreted as being responsible for the output contraction, but shows that yield growth had an important role in offsetting the effects of reduced plantings. Production change Area Yield Interaction 2010-2018 22.2% 34.7% 60.6% 4.7% 2010-2015 26.7% 64.7% 30.0% 5.2% 2016-2018 -1.4% 345.9% -258.3% 12.4% for improved irrigation systems and better seeds. Production in the 2018/19 season is forecast to fractionally rise from 2017, just 3.5 percent lower than the level of the final year of the MSP regime, in 2015/16. High production levels of maize, but also high domestic prices relative to international levels, have kept stock levels well above the normal requirements.
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Cassava 19 FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2018 Of the few countries that supply cassava to China, three are severely economically disadvantaged, holding LDC status – Viet Nam, Cambodia and the Lao People’s Democratic Republic. Figure 4 shows the rapid expansion of cassava cultivation in the three LDCs, and cassava area evolution in Thailand, as well as China. For example, Cambodia had a negligible cassava sector as recently as 2005, but by 2016 the country’s cassava area had reached close to 400,000 ha. Similarly, in just seven years, the cassava area in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic had increased from an insignificant level to almost 100 000 ha in 2016. Meanwhile, in Viet Nam, the area under cassava increased almost threefold between 2000 and 2016, to a level of 600 000 ha. The rapid rise in cassava area has almost entirely been driven by the prospect of supplying lucrative markets in China. The expansion in land used for cassava cultivation has often entailed wide-scale deforestation, encroaching on primary forests. Consequently, the near 1.1 million ha expansion of cassava area in the three LDCs has more than likely come at a considerable environmental cost, notwithstanding the loss of biodiversity. These factors aside, the prospect of a negative income impact on small-scale farmers who dominate cassava cultivation in these LDCs is a major concern. With an average holding of 4 ha, more than 250 000 farmers are estimated to be engaged in cassava cultivation. By virtue of their LDC status, these farmers have little or no recourse to safeguard mechanisms such as safety nets. While the likelihood of establishing markets in the short term beyond the monopsony of China remains bleak, a quick shift to other remunerative crops to maintain their livelihoods could be the only alternative for cassava farmers, albeit not an easy one. Cambodia Thailand China Viet nam Lao People’s Democratic Republic Figure 4. Cassava area expansion in Southeast Asia 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 000 ha 0 300 600 900 1200 1500 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 000 ha 0 70 140 210 280 350 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 000 ha 0 20 40 60 80 100 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 000 ha 0 120 240 360 480 600 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 000 ha
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Commodity focus 20 FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2018 production in 2018 is expected to reach a multi-year low of 27 million tonnes. For similar reasons, a cessation of
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