Stats Ch 14 Time Series Forecasting- Scripted(2).pptx

51 β 2 the difference in mean sales between the 1 st

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mean sales increase by an estimated $16.51 β 2 The difference in mean sales between the 1 st and the 4 th quarters is estimated to be $262.34. What is the forecast for the 3 rd quarter of 2015?
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31 Additional Example: Trend and Seasonal Factors Wagner Machine Works, the company Mary is taking over, has faced increasing competitive pressure. Mary sees the need for an immediate modernization of their plant. She has arranged for a loan from the local bank, but she must forecast sales for the next 3 years to ensure that the company has enough cash flow to repay the debt. She finds there is no forecasting system in place, and she cannot afford the time or money to install a system like that used in her previous company. She remembers her friend, you, are taking Statistics class right now and as for your help. What will be the forecast for the next three years? Wagner Data Wagner Results
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32
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33 Harmon Food Data Data File: Harmon Foods, Inc. Harmon Foods Data Harmon Foods Hint
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Autocorrelation (optional) Autocorrelation Durbin-Watson
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