invest_3ed.pdf

# C still using our same sample results what one number

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(c) Still using our same sample results, what one number would you use to predict a healthy body temperature? If you then considered the uncertainty (margin-of-error) in this estimate for predicting one person’s body temperature, would you expected this marg in-of-error to be larger or smaller then for predicting the population mean body temperature? Explain. Estimate: Margin-of-error: Explain: To construct such a confidence interval (often called a “prediction interval” to indicate that it will predict an individual outcome rather than the population mean), we need to consider both the sample-to- sample variation in sample means as well as the individual-to-individual variation in body temperatures. (d) We will estimate this combined standard error of an individual value by s n / 1 1 ² . Using this formula, how will this compare to the standard error of the sample mean (larger or smaller)? Explain. (e) Calculate this value for the body temperature data.

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Chance/Rossman, 2015 ISCAM III Investigation 2.6 167 Study Conclusions For one person to determine whether they have an unusual body temperature, we need a prediction interval rather than a confidence interval for the population mean. A 95% prediction interval for the body temperature of a healthy adult turns out to be (96.79, 99.71), a fairly wide interval.

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