Its evd impact will lead to an increase in the

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Its EVD impact will lead to an increase in the poverty rate by 13.76 percent in the low Ebola scenario and 14.11 percent in the high Ebola scenario in 2015, and by 21.29 percent in the low Ebola scenario and 21.79 percent in the high Ebola scenario 2016, relative to the baseline (figure 27). In examining the estimated results, Liberia is also the most affected country in terms of poverty. The poverty situation in the country prior to the outbreak was already alarming – at 83.3 percent in 2011. In 2014, the poverty rate is estimated to have been 5.46 percent higher in the low Ebola scenario and 5.89 percent higher in the high Ebola scenario scenario, both relative to the baseline (no Ebola). The difference in the incidence of poverty between the low and high Ebola scenarios will continue to widen in 2015 (17.58 percent) and 2016 (19.2 percent) (figure 27). Poverty impact in the other countries. The impact of the Ebola epidemic on poverty is also notable in the neighbouring countries of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. In contrast to Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea Bissau and Mali have experienced serious crises, which negatively affected economic growth and exacerbated poverty between 2011 and 2013. Thus, given the economic growth of these countries, the incidence of poverty could be around 50 percent in Côte d’Ivoire in 2011, and 68 percent in Guinea Bissau and 45 percent in Mali in 2013. Although the economies of these countries have started to recover, showing strong performances, particularly in Côte d’Ivoire, the Ebola outbreak could hamper prospects for poverty reduction. SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE IN WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES
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58 The estimated results indicate that, in 2014, in Côte d’Ivoire , the poverty rate has risen by between 0.5 (low Ebola scenario) and 0.58 percent (high Ebola scenario) above what it would have been without Ebola. These figures could reach 2.27 percent in 2016 (figure 28). In 2016, in Guinea Bissau , the poverty rate could rise by about 2.33 percent compared to what it would be without Ebola, assuming a high level of infection (figure 29). Figure 27: Poverty impact of the Ebola virus disease in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone Source: Authors’ estimation. Guinea Liberia Sierra Leone 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2011 Poverty rate (%) Change in poverty (%) 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2011 Poverty rate (%) Change in poverty (%) 0 2.25 4.5 6.75 9 0 6.25 12.5 18.75 25 49 51 53 55 57 0 25 50 75 100 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2011 % change in poverty, High Ebola scenario % change in poverty, Low Ebola scenario Poverty without Ebola Poverty, Low Ebola scenario Poverty, High Ebola scenario Poverty rate (%) Change in poverty (%) 0 7.5 15 22.5 30 0 15 30 45 60 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE IN WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES
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59 Figure 28: Poverty impact of the Ebola virus disease in Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana Source: Authors’ estimation. Benin Burkina Faso Côte d’Ivoire Ghana 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2010 2011 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2010 2011 Poverty rate (%) Change in poverty (%) Poverty rate (%) Change in poverty (%) 0 1 2 3 4 0 2.5 5 7.5 10 26 28.5 31 33.5 36 0 12.5 25 37.5 50 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2010 2011 2008 2009 Poverty rate (%) Change in poverty (%) 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 Poverty rate (%) Change in poverty (%) 0.00 0.75 1.50 2.25 3.00 0 0.375 0.750 1.125 1.5 40 43.75 47.5 51.25 55 18 20 22 24 26 % change in poverty, High Ebola scenario % change in poverty, Low Ebola scenario
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