Socio economic impact of ebola virus disease in west

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SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE IN WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES
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41 3.2.3 The impact on GDP growth and GDP per capita growth The section presents the macro-economic estimation of the GDP growth. The results are presented under three scenarios: a baseline scenario (no Ebola); a high EVD scenario; and a low EVD scenario. The report presents the analysis sequentially based on the severity of the EVD. First, the results for the three countries mostly affected by Ebola (Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone) are presented. This is followed by a discussion of the countries that had a positive number of detected cases but are now Ebola-free (Mali, Nigeria and Senegal). Finally, the results for the other West African countries are presented as well as for the entire West African region. Guinea. Guinea is the least affected of the three epicentre countries, with 2,707 cases and a total of 1,709 deaths reported. Recently, several measures implemented by the Government to contain the EVD have yielded results. Figure 13 and Table 8 summarize the macro-economic impacts for Guinea between 2014 and 2017 in terms of GDP per capita and GDP growth. In the high Ebola scenario (the current situation), the country will experience a 3.4 percent reduction in average GDP growth between 2014 and 2017 relative to the no Ebola scenario (or baseline). This reduction in GDP growth represents around US$155.9 million in lost GDP in 2015 for the low EVD case scenario and US$238.7 million for the high EVD scenario. Table 7: Member Countries’ share of intra-ECOWAS imports and exports in foreign trade Country Intra-ECOWAS Imports Intra-ECOWAS exports 2010 2011 prev 2012 prev 2013 prev 2010 2011 prev 2012 prev 2013 prev Benin 54.5 22.6 22.2 23.2 14.7 18.9 17.4 12.1 Burkina Faso 9.4 5.5 5.8 7.5 26.7 24.6 22.6 21.4 Cape Verde 0.6 2.2 0.4 1.8 1.4 0.8 1.2 1.1 Côte d'Ivoire 24.9 21.1 25.6 30.5 28.0 25.9 28.7 25.2 Gambia, The 54.0 86.8 84.4 88.9 23.2 26.6 33.0 29.3 Ghana 10.3 27.8 9.9 8.6 7.9 7.8 4.4 1.6 Guinea 9.3 9.3 9.3 1.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 1.3 Guinea Bissau 0.7 2.6 2.6 0.1 16.3 17.6 17.6 10.8 Liberia 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.4 1.5 2.4 Mali 11.0 15.3 11.7 11.1 30.2 40.4 44.8 33.4 Niger 48.8 50.7 87.5 84.7 11.4 14.7 19.9 20.8 Nigeria 2.4 3.4 3.9 6.7 0.4 1.4 0.4 10.2 Senegal 42.9 34.7 34.6 37.2 13.3 13.6 16.2 14.5 Sierra Leone 6.8 6.2 1.2 6.8 49.9 52.7 32.7 34.9 Togo 20.3 70.5 61.4 69.5 11.0 8.9 10.1 10.2 Source: ECOWAS Commission. SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE IN WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES
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42 During the 2014-17 period, Guinea’s average GDP loss is estimated at US$184.4 million each year, or around 4.9 percent of the average GDP over the same period in the low Ebola scenario. In the high Ebola scenario, the average loss of GDP is US$315.5 million, or around 8.6 percent of GDP over this timeframe. On the loss of GDP, Guinea is the least affected country among the three heavily affected countries. In terms of GDP per capita, the difference between the baseline model and the low Ebola scenario is around 1.1 percent, and 1.8 percent in the high scenario. This is equivalent to a loss of US$9 per capita between the baseline scenario and the low Ebola scenario.
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