CA2320EN.pdf

Increase vigorously mostly driven by a recovery of

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increase vigorously, mostly driven by a recovery of production in Argentina and further yield improvements in the United States, as well as by area expansions in Brazil, China and India. Among the other main oilcrops, global palm oil production is forecast to continue growing at a moderate rate, whereas global rapeseed production could contract, impaired by unfavourable weather conditions in the EU and Australia. In 2018/19, growth in world meals/cakes utilization is forecast to slow down, tied to subdued feed demand in China, whereas growth in oils/fats consumption will most likely be supported by continuing economic growth in major consuming regions and sustained demand from the biodiesel sector. Based on FAO’s current buoyant production forecasts, the output of oilcrop products is anticipated to exceed global consumption of oils and meals in 2018/19. As a result, world inventories at the close of the seasons are forecast to rise, particularly in the soybean complex, with major exporters’ stock-to- disappearance ratios possibly reaching historical highs. International trade in vegetable oils in 2018/19 is expected to recover from last season’s passive performance. Trade in oilseeds and oilmeals is also forecast to expand, but at a slower pace, mainly reflecting uncertainties about the US-China trade relations and related slowdowns in import demand. These uncertainties, together with currently positive global production outlooks, have kept international soybean prices under strong downward pressure in recent months. International prices of oils and meals also remained on a falling trend. In the coming months, factors affecting soybean crop prospects in South America and palm oil production in Southeast Asia will play a key role in determining price movements in the oilseed complex. Developments regarding the US-China trade relations will also be critical. For additional analyses and updates, see: Oilcrops Monthly Price and Policy Update at monthly-price-and-policy-update/ AMIS Market Monitor at OILCROPS Contact: [email protected] FAO MONTHLY INTERNATIONAL PRICE INDICES FOR OILSEEDS, VEGETABLE OILS AND MEALS/CAKES (2002-2004=100) WORLD OILCROP AND PRODUCT MARKET AT A GLANCE 2016/17 2017/18 estim. 2018/19 f’cast Change: 2018/19 over 2017/18 million tonnes % TOTAL OILCROPS Production 586.7 589 616.1 4.6 OILS AND FATS Production 226.3 231.4 237.9 2.8 Supply 260.8 267.5 275.2 2.9 Utilization 222.8 228.5 235.2 2.9 Trade 124.0 124.6 129.0 3.6 Global stocks-to-use ratio (%) 16.2 16.3 16.5 Major exporters stocks-to- disappearance ratio (%) 10.3 11.1 12.3 MEALS AND CAKES Production 152.3 151.2 160.7 6.3 Supply 177.3 178.9 186.4 4.2 Utilization 145.0 151.6 154.7 2.0 Trade 96.2 99.2 101.4 2.3 Global stocks-to-use ratio (%) 18.4 16.9 19.0 Major exporters stocks-to- disappearance ratio (%) 11.8 10.4 13.8 FAO PRICE INDICES (2002-2004=100) 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Oct Change: Jan-Oct 2018 over Jan-Oct 2017 % Oilseeds 154 152 152 -0.6 Meals/cakes 169 159 187 18.1 Vegetable oils 164 169 148 -12.6 Note: For explanations on definitions and coverage kindly refer to previous issues of Food Outlook.
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