Increase vigorously mostly driven by a recovery of

This preview shows page 8 - 9 out of 108 pages.

increase vigorously, mostly driven by a recovery of production in Argentina and further yield improvements in the United States, as well as by area expansions in Brazil, China and India. Among the other main oilcrops, global palm oil production is forecast to continue growing at a moderate rate, whereas global rapeseed production could contract, impaired by unfavourable weather conditions in the EU and Australia. In 2018/19, growth in world meals/cakes utilization is forecast to slow down, tied to subdued feed demand in China, whereas growth in oils/fats consumption will most likely be supported by continuing economic growth in major consuming regions and sustained demand from the biodiesel sector. Based on FAO’s current buoyant production forecasts, the output of oilcrop products is anticipated to exceed global consumption of oils and meals in 2018/19. As a result, world inventories at the close of the seasons are forecast to rise, particularly in the soybean complex, with major exporters’ stock-to- disappearance ratios possibly reaching historical highs. International trade in vegetable oils in 2018/19 is expected to recover from last season’s passive performance. Trade in oilseeds and oilmeals is also forecast to expand, but at a slower pace, mainly reflecting uncertainties about the US-China trade relations and related slowdowns in import demand. These uncertainties, together with currently positive global production outlooks, have kept international soybean prices under strong downward pressure in recent months. International prices of oils and meals also remained on a falling trend. In the coming months, factors affecting soybean crop prospects in South America and palm oil production in Southeast Asia will play a key role in determining price movements in the oilseed complex. Developments regarding the US-China trade relations will also be critical. For additional analyses and updates, see: Oilcrops Monthly Price and Policy Update at monthly-price-and-policy-update/ AMIS Market Monitor at OILCROPS Contact: [email protected] FAO MONTHLY INTERNATIONAL PRICE INDICES FOR OILSEEDS, VEGETABLE OILS AND MEALS/CAKES (2002-2004=100) WORLD OILCROP AND PRODUCT MARKET AT A GLANCE 2016/17 2017/18 estim. 2018/19 f’cast Change: 2018/19 over 2017/18 million tonnes % TOTAL OILCROPS Production 586.7 589 616.1 4.6 OILS AND FATS Production 226.3 231.4 237.9 2.8 Supply 260.8 267.5 275.2 2.9 Utilization 222.8 228.5 235.2 2.9 Trade 124.0 124.6 129.0 3.6 Global stocks-to-use ratio (%) 16.2 16.3 16.5 Major exporters stocks-to- disappearance ratio (%) 10.3 11.1 12.3 MEALS AND CAKES Production 152.3 151.2 160.7 6.3 Supply 177.3 178.9 186.4 4.2 Utilization 145.0 151.6 154.7 2.0 Trade 96.2 99.2 101.4 2.3 Global stocks-to-use ratio (%) 18.4 16.9 19.0 Major exporters stocks-to- disappearance ratio (%) 11.8 10.4 13.8 FAO PRICE INDICES (2002-2004=100) 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Oct Change: Jan-Oct 2018 over Jan-Oct 2017 % Oilseeds 154 152 152 -0.6 Meals/cakes 169 159 187 18.1 Vegetable oils 164 169 148 -12.6 Note: For explanations on definitions and coverage kindly refer to previous issues of Food Outlook.
Image of page 8

Subscribe to view the full document.

Image of page 9

{[ snackBarMessage ]}

What students are saying

  • Left Quote Icon

    As a current student on this bumpy collegiate pathway, I stumbled upon Course Hero, where I can find study resources for nearly all my courses, get online help from tutors 24/7, and even share my old projects, papers, and lecture notes with other students.

    Student Picture

    Kiran Temple University Fox School of Business ‘17, Course Hero Intern

  • Left Quote Icon

    I cannot even describe how much Course Hero helped me this summer. It’s truly become something I can always rely on and help me. In the end, I was not only able to survive summer classes, but I was able to thrive thanks to Course Hero.

    Student Picture

    Dana University of Pennsylvania ‘17, Course Hero Intern

  • Left Quote Icon

    The ability to access any university’s resources through Course Hero proved invaluable in my case. I was behind on Tulane coursework and actually used UCLA’s materials to help me move forward and get everything together on time.

    Student Picture

    Jill Tulane University ‘16, Course Hero Intern