Estimated impact on 23 source icao estimates summary

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Estimated Impact on 23 Source : ICAO estimates Summary of estimated impact in 1Q 2020 The preliminary estimates indicate the impact in terms of scheduled international passenger traffic from/to mainland China (including between mainland China and Hong Kong SAR of China, Macao SAR of China and Taiwan, Province of China) during 1Q 2020 compared to originally-planned: Overall reduction of 47% of seats offered by airlines Overall reduction of 21.9 to 22.9 million passengers Approx. USD 4.9 to 5.1 billion potential loss of gross operating revenues of airlines
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24 Scenario Analysis: Hong Kong SAR of China, Macao SAR of China and Taiwan, Province of China This is a preliminary analysis. Figures and estimates herein will be updated with the situation evolving and more information available.
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25 Scope of analysis: Hong Kong and Macao SARs and Taiwan Province “Hong Kong International” refers to scheduled international passenger services from/to Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China excluding : scheduled passenger services between Hong Kong SAR of China and mainland China, Macao SAR of China and Taiwan, Province of China “Macao International” refers to scheduled international passenger services from/to Macao SAR of China excluding: scheduled passenger services between Macao SAR of China and mainland China, Hong Kong SAR of China and Taiwan, Province of China “Taiwan International” refers to scheduled international passenger services from/to Taiwan, Province of China excluding: scheduled passenger services between Taiwan, Province of China and mainland China, Hong Kong SAR of China and Macao SAR of China “Cross-Strait” refers to scheduled passenger services among Hong Kong SAR of China, Macao SAR of China and Taiwan, Province of China excluding: Regional” already included in the mainland China analysis
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26 Scenario analysis of COVID-19 outbreak impact for 1Q 2020 Baseline (hypothetical situation without COVID-19 outbreak) Seat capacity: used "originally-planned" winter schedule Load factor: applied 80% (87% for LCCs) Scenario 1 (mild) Seat capacity: estimated by airlines' schedule changes Load factor: applied the same % as baseline in January; 15 and 12 percentage points lower than baseline in February and March, respectively (8 and 6 percentage points lower for Taiwan; 30 and 25 percentage points lower for Cross-strait; 15 percentage points lower in March for Korea and Italy) Scenario 2 (severe) Seat capacity: estimated by airlines' schedule changes Load factor: applied the same % as baseline in January; 25 and 22 percentage points lower than baseline in February and March, respectively (13 and 11 percentage points lower for Taiwan; 40 and 33 percentage points lower for Cross-strait; 25 percentage points lower in March for Korea, Iran and Italy)
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27 Source : OAG scheduled data Baseline: 1% seat capacity increase compared to 1Q 2019 A total of YoY 1% seat capacity increase originally - planned for 1Q 2020 with the expectation of continued weak demand for Hong Kong SAR and Cross- strait services Impact of Hong Kong protests
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  • Fall '19
  • Republic of China, People's Republic of China, Mainland China, Macao SAR of China, Hong Kong SAR of China

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