Hill et al MIFIRA Uganda Draft Report 2011.doc

Soroti and iganga are both very close to source

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serves as a wholesale and export market for the northbound route to Sudan. Soroti and Iganga are both very close to source regions and at the same time serve as wholesale markets for traders who come from and/or who travel to larger markets to sell maize. Kampala, Jinja, and Mbale are predominantly wholesale and export markets. Kampala, one of the main areas to which maize flows from various regions of Uganda, is a maize deficit district because little maize is grown there, but it is an important market to study given its importance in export and aid markets. Jinja is also a major milling and processing market for maize purchased for aid and export. In the broader Jinja district, however, we interviewed traders in the smaller markets of Buwenge and Kasambira, both source markets that feed into Jinja, Iganga, and Kampala. While Busia in the far Southeast is the most significant market for exports to Kenya, Mbale also plays a significant role in cross-border trade. Market integration is an important component of choosing a market and can be determined by a correlation matrix between prices in different markets. Please see Table 2 for the correlation matrix of our market prices of interest. As is apparent, Kisenyi in Kampala, which is the major center of maize trading in Uganda, is highly integrated with even markets further away. Mbale, which is one of the larger trading centers north of Kampala, is also highly integrated with the other markets visited. In fact, the correlations are relatively high for all the markets, which seem to be well integrated. The markets that have the weakest price relationship are often far away from each other and serve different purposes, such as aggregation versus wholesale. This may explain a lower relationship because prices of maize in Uganda are not adjusted by quality or link in the market chain. IV. Findings In most contexts, MIFIRA is used as an ex-ante tool to identify 1) whether a community should receive cash or food and whether local markets can handle the increase in demand from a cash aid choice and 2) if a community should receive food, is it more appropriate to supply with transoceanic shipments or LRP. In the context of this study, we are using MIFIRA more as an ex- post tool to study a market that has already been chosen for LRP. Page 12
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Many of the MIFIRA analytics developed to address the MIFIRA questions answer multiple questions. For example, when answering questions 2a and 2b, supply responsiveness is an important component to consider for both questions. Analytics that address supply responsiveness should be used to answer both questions. For clarity, we include supply responsiveness results in the section answering question 2a and then refer to them in the section addressing 2b. Similarly, level of competition may help answer whether a prospective market is viable, but we include most competition analytics in the section that answers question 2b. We learned that in Uganda competition not a concern only at the market level, but also at different
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