outranged and outgunned but also outnumbered write David A Shlapak and Michael

Outranged and outgunned but also outnumbered write

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outrangedand outgunned, but also outnumbered,”write David A. Shlapak and Michael W. Johnson of the RAND Corporation in War on the Rocks. Indeed, other analysts such as the Center for Naval Analyses’ Jeff Edmonds agree that Russia could likely overwhelm the Baltics with the forces they have available. “The Russians have a clear overmatch from there and can overwhelm them quickly,” Edmonds told the National Interest . But Kofman as notes, Russia would need to size its invasion force tonot only beatthe local NATO forces in the Baltics but to fight the entire allianceand defeata counter-attack. Planners in Moscow would have to account for an inevitable counter-attack by the United States and its allies, thus it would not like limit itself to an invasion force of twenty-seven combat battalions as posited by the RAND study. Nor would the Kremlin necessary only afford itself a ten-day timeframe. “If Russiawas planning a full-scale invasion of the Baltic states, it would also have to plan to take on all of NATO and defend against a counter-attack,” Kofman wrote in War on the Rocks . “Great powerstypically don’t attack superpowers with cobbled-together forces and hope for the best.Moscow would likely bring to bear a force several times larger than that assumed in the wargame and maintain the logistics to deploy additional units from other military districts. Opinions will vary among Russian military experts about the size of force Russia could muster in a hurry, but one estimate I suspect you will not hear is twenty-seven battalions thrown together for what could be World War III. Think much bigger and not within an arbitrary ten-day time limit [of the RAND study].” If the Russians do not the intent to invade the Baltics or have the forces in place to start a war, what might start a conflict in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia? Oliker posits a plausible scenario where a misunderstanding could spark a war. “It is plausible thatthe saber rattling,perhaps combined with exercises, could lead NATO countries to be concerned that some sort of Russian action in the Baltics is planned,” Oliker said. “If that then results in NATO military actions geared to neutralize Russian capabilities in Kaliningrad, Moscow could, in turn, perceive that as a threat(recall that most ofRussia’s scenarios start with some sort of NATO aggression) and take steps to ameliorate that threat.Particularly in the absence of sound communication channels, and if tensions are otherwise high, it is possible that these competing actions could lead to an escalation spiralincluding, with everyone on edge and predicting aggressionfrom the potential adversary, to conflict.”Russia won’t attack the BalticsSaakashvili 19– senior statesman at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and was president of Georgia from 2004 to 2013(Mikheil, 3/15, “Russia’s Next Land Grab Won’t Be in an Ex-Soviet State. It Will Be in Europe.” [accessed 7/11/19],
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