be brought down from 61 in BAU scenario to 36 in ambitious scenario showing

Be brought down from 61 in bau scenario to 36 in

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be brought down from 61% in BAU scenario to 36% in ambitious scenario showing that we have to make simultaneous interventions in the demand and supply sectors to reduce energy imports in India. It is evident from Table 6 that the ambitious scenario has enhanced capacity of renewables and gas power stations. The capacity of coal power stations is also higher in ambitious scenario as it also seeks to enhance the installed capacity of coal with more efficient and cleaner technologies. c. Domestic Production: Fuel 2012 2047 BAU Ambitious Coal (Mtce) 582 1157 1400 Oil (Mtoe) 38 59 68 Gas (BCM) 48 128 170 Table 7 Waste to Electricity 0 6 6 Total 221 1375 1816 Table 8 The Ambitious scenario considers aggressive efforts to step up the domestic fossil fuel production which is evident in the Table 7. d. Import Dependence: 2012 2047 BAU Scenario Ambitious Scenario Coal 17% 65% 34% Oil 77% 90% 78% Gas 22% 51% 33% Overall 31% 61% 36% 16
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Table 9 2012 2047 TWh BAU Scenario Ambitious Scenario Nuclear 1% 2% 4% Renewable Energy 3% 7% 12% Agriculture/waste 15% 5% 8% Coal 46% 50% 42% Oil 27% 28% 23% Natural gas 8% 8% 10% Figure 5 The Table 9 gives the primary energy mix of India in 2047 for both the scenarios – BAU and Ambi- tious. It is evident from Table 9 that coal is going to remain the mainstay of India’s energy mix with a share of 50% and 42% in BAU and ambitious scenario respectively. Whereas, the share of renewable energy would rise to 12% in the ambitious scenario in 2047 in comparison with 7% in BAU scenario. Though, the consumption of natural gas would increase in both the scenarios, the share of natural gas would rise only by 2% in the ambitious scenario in 2047 in comparison with BAU. 7703 4826 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 Total GHG Emissions (MT CO2e) GHG Emissions (BAU Scenario) GHG Emissions (Ambitious Scenario) f. Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions: i. Total GHG Energy Related Emissions: e. Energy Mix of India: 17
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The Figure 5 gives the Energy related GHG Emissions which account for 75% of the total GHG emissions of the country. It is evident from Figure 5 that the Total GHG Emissions in the ambitious scenario are 37% less in comparison with BAU Scenario. Since, the ambitious scenario considers a higher penetration of renewables along with enhanced efficiency, the emissions are lower than BAU scenario. Though, India’s total GHG emissions rise, the per capita emissions are likely to remain much below than that of other countries. For instance, presently the per capita emissions of India are 1.6 tons CO2e/capita, whereas that of China are 7.7 tons CO2e/capita and the United States are 16.2 tons CO2e/capita. The per capita emissions of India are not expected to reach even the present per capita levels of China and US even in 2047. The Figure 6 highlights that even in the BAU scenario in 2047, India’s per capita emissions would be lower than China’s present per capita emissions. Figure 6 ii. Per-capita GHG energy related emissions: 4.5 2.8 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 Per Capita GHG Emissions (Tons CO2e/capita) Per capita GHG Emissions (BAU Scenario) Per capita GHG Emissions (Ambitious Scenario) 18
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Figure 7 19 5.3 3.3 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 Emissions Intensity (Kg CO2/1000 INR)
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