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are incompatible, the CB cannot target reserves and interest rates simultaneously.Why is that? Although the CB expects the demand curve for reserves to be at Rd*, it fluctuates between Rd’ and Rd’’because of movements in deposits (hence required reserves) and changes in banks’ desire to hold excess reserves. If the CB has a non-borrowed reserves target of NBR*, it expects that the short-term interest rate will be i*. However, as the first figure indicates the short-term interest rate will fluctuate between i’and i’’. To maintain the interest rate at i*, the CB would have to move the NBR along and let it fluctuate between NBR’ and NBR’’. This is the reason the targets are incompatible. Three criteria have to be fulfilled for choosing the policy instrument: 1.Observability and measurability – quickly observable and measurable 2.Controllability – instrument should be fully controlled with tool 3.Predictable effect on goals – there must be a stable and predictable relationship with the goal, a correlation Verspreiden niet toegestaan | Gedownload door Pieter-Paul Nota ([email protected])lOMoARcPSD
Nowadays most CBs target short-term interest rates as policy instrument. But how should this rate be set? Taylor rule i = equilibrium real i + inflation rate + ½(inflation gap) + ½(output gap) i = r* + π + ½(π – π*) + ½(Y – Y*) (where π* and Y* are the objective levels respectively, output gap = % deviation of real GDP from its potential level) The Taylor principle is thus that if the inflation rate increases by 1%, the CB should raise i by 1.5%. Stabilizing the real output is an important concern and the output gap is an indicator of future inflation. When looking at the empirical comparison between Taylor and the actual EONIA in the past years, two things deserve attention: 1)Taylor is structurally higher than EONIA and 2)they both consistently move in the same direction. Almost the same applies for the UK and US: Verspreiden niet toegestaan | Gedownload door Pieter-Paul Nota ([email protected])lOMoARcPSD
Verspreiden niet toegestaan | Gedownload door Pieter-Paul Nota ([email protected])lOMoARcPSD