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oAuthoritarianism, corruption, econ conditionsBut previous protests hadn't escalated…Unclear why protests happened then -- What about youth bulge?Protest dynamicsoPreference falsificationCan be solved when a signal shows every that private beliefs are actuallyshared by everyone (such as protests, violence)When you don't tell people your private viewsoInformational cascades
What kind of curve?
End of state emergencyConstitutional reformsoMay 2012 parliamentary electionsLow turn outIncreased FLN-RND pro-government majorityIslamists do poorlyoApril 2014 pres electionsBouteflika's poor healthConstitutional amendment to permit 4th term in officeNeverthless "wins" 82% of voteoRevised constitution (Feb 2016)Limited reforms (term limits PM to come from largest party)oWhy no Algerian "Arab Spring"?Diffused power structureDivised opposition and low social trustLegacy of 1990s civil warImpact of events in Egypt, Syria, Libya (and Iraq)September 27MoroccoProtests in early 2011 met with limited constitutional reformsoKing must choose PM from winning party, PM chooses cabinetoPower of parliament to investigate oAmazigh becomes an official language