Vulnerability narratives climate exposure very high

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Vulnerability NarrativesClimate Exposure: Very High. Three exposure factorscontributed to this score: Ocean Surface Temperature(4.0), Ocean Acidification (4.0) and Air Temperature(4.0). Alewife are anadromous, spawning infreshwater, developing in freshwater and estuarinehabitats, feeding as adults in marine habitats.Biological Sensitivity: High. Four sensitivity attributesscored above 3.0: Other Stressors (3.3), Early LifeHistory Requirements (3.3), Spawning Cycle (3.2),Complexity in Reproduction (3.2). Alewife areanadromous and exposed to a number of otherstressors including habitat destruction, blockage tospawning habitats, and contaminants (Limburg andWaldman, 2009). Spawning time varies latitudinallyand is linked to spring warming (Monroe 2002). Eggsand larvae inhabit freshwaters and then juvenilesmove to estuarine and ocean waters.
Sea-level rise riskLandings diversityLandings climate vulnerabilityNMFS Social Indicators Project:Community VulnerabilityColburn et al. (in press)
16%26%16%42%0%33%61%5%Vulnerability to change in productivity and potential fordistribution shift for 82 speciesCommercial, recreational, and aquaculture species in MaineState Vulnerability
State / Port VulnerabilityColburn et al. (in press)
Trigger Questions--Are state vulnerabilities useful in addition to ASMFC-levelresults?How do you envision using the results?As you look through the results, are there tweaks we cando to make the results more useful?
Climate Impacts on Atlantic Stocksand Harvest Allocation ChallengesSpring MeetingAlexandria, VirginiaMay 2016
Overview1)Detecting climate-induced changes in stockdistributions2)Soliciting Commissioner feedback on harvestre-allocation options3)Technical and management process to adjustharvest allocations4)Future directions
Observed sea surface temperature trend
ASMFC-NMFS collaborative investigationFocal Stocks:black sea bass, summer flounder, scup, winter flounderDistribution shift patterns?Factors driving distribution shifts?Hare, Richardson, Bell (NEFSC) & Griffis, Morrison (NOAA-HQ)ASMFC Management and Science Committee
Quantifying stock distribution shiftsCenter of Biomass:the distance along the Northeast shelfNEFSC trawl surveydata analysisInshore and offshorestrata1972 – 2008
SpringFallSummer FlounderWinter FlounderChanges in center of biomass by species and season
Changes in center of biomass by species and season
Summer Flounderpoleward shift in distributionbiomass increase over time
Factors driving distribution shiftsIncreasing temperature-Species tend to move north as temperatures warmChanges in population abundance-Populations occupy a larger, expansive area as numbers increaseChanges in population size structure-Reducing fishing pressure tends to result in larger fish-Larger fish often occur further north than smaller fish010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00019811991200120111970198019902000201023456Temperature (C)
Summer flounder size structureSmaller fish further southLarger fish further north20-29 cm40-49 cm60-69 cm
Stock shifts by Atlantic state borders

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Term
Fall
Professor
Staff
Tags
Climate Change, Sea surface temperature, Overfishing, Fishery

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