Trade war fears continued to weigh on the price of copper, as the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China—the two largest consumers of the red metal—continues to generate uncertainty in global commodity markets. Meanwhile, Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, reported production growth of nearly 20.0% in Q1, exacerbating downward pressure on prices. On the supply side, political risk has become a major concern, as resource-rich countries seek to tap into increased profits generated by mining companies. At the end of April, new environmental laws were introduced in Indonesia, while in Democratic Republic of Congo a new law entailing higher taxes for foreign mining companies was signed into law by the country’s president. These events have increased the risk of notable supply disruptions in the medium term, adding upward pressure to copper prices. Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect copper prices to remain largely stable in the short term on strong global growth. Meanwhile, in the medium- to long-term copper prices should trend upwards on greater global demand for infrastructure, electric vehicles, and renewable energy. Our panelists expect copper prices to average USD 3.11 per pound in 2018 and 3.11 per pound again in 2019. 1 2 3 4 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Copper Price | USD per Lb. Note: Cash seller and settlement price. Source: London Metal Exchange (LME). EMISPDF in-isb_emis from 220.127.116.11 on 2018-06-07 19:51:22 BST. DownloadPDF. Downloaded by in-isb_emis from 18.104.22.168 at 2018-06-07 19:51:22 BST. EMIS. Unauthorized Distribution Prohibited.
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- Summer '18
- Sagar Arora
- Inflation, LatinFocus Consensus Forecast