# Use the sales data given below to determine a the

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Use the sales data given below to determine: (a) the least squares trend line, and (b) the predicted value for 2003 sales. Year Sales (Units) 1996 100 1997 110 1998 122 1999 130 2000 139 2001 152 2002 164 To minimize computations, transform the value of x (time) to simpler numbers. In this case, designate year 1996 as year 1, 1997 as year 2, etc.

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4 Problem 6: Given the forecast demand and actual demand for 10-foot fishing boats, compute the tracking signal and MAD. Year Forecast Demand Actual Demand 1 78 71 2 75 80 3 83 101 4 84 84 5 88 60 6 85 73 Problem: 7 Over the past year Meredith and Smunt Manufacturing had annual sales of 10,000 portable water pumps. The average quarterly sales for the past 5 years have averaged: spring 4,000, summer 3,000, fall 2,000 and winter 1,000. Compute the quarterly index. Problem: 8 Using the data in Problem 7, Meredith and Smunt Manufacturing expects sales of pumps to grow by 10% next year. Compute next year’s sales and the sales for each quarter.
5 ANSWERS: Problem 1: demand in previous periods Moving average n n = Week Auto Sales Three-Week Moving Average 1 8 2 10 3 9 4 11 (8 + 9 + 10) / 3 = 9 5 10 (10 + 9 + 11) / 3 = 10 6 13 (9 + 11 + 10) / 3 = 10 7 - (11 + 10 + 13) / 3 = 11 1/3

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6 Problem 2: (weight for period )(demand in period ) Weighted moving average weights n n = Week Auto Sales Three-Week Moving Average 1 8 2 10 3 9 4 11
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• Fall '13
• RKSinha
• Sales, Meredith, 1982, Smunt Manufacturing

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