ECONOMICS
Lecture3

# Square6 but out of all fatalities only 37 is drivers

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square6 But out of all fatalities only 37% is drivers. Rest are car passengers – 18.3% , pedestrians – 14.5% , motorcyclists – 8.8% square6 71% of all vehicle miles travelled are travelled by cars F o =46,386 x 0.37/1924.3 x 0.71=12.56 car-driver fatalities per billion miles

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5 Is it safer to fly or drive? square6 Car-driver fatality risk depends strongly on driver age M age for average airline traveler=0.759 M age for a 40 year old driver= 0.548 M age for a 18 year old male driver=5.10 Is it safer to fly or drive? square6 The average driver fatality rate is influenced by driver alcohol use: M alcohol for a driver with blood alcohol concentration > 0 = 2.44 M alcohol for a driver with blood alcohol concentration 0.10% = 7.66
6 Is it safer to fly or drive? square6 The average driver fatality rate is influenced by driver alcohol use: M alcohol for a driver with blood alcohol concentration > 0 = 2.44 M alcohol for a driver with blood alcohol concentration 0.10% = 7.66 Is it safer to fly or drive? square6 The average driver fatality rate is influenced by car size: M mass for a 700 pounds heavier than average = 0.737 M mass for a 700 pounds lighter than average= 1.356

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7 Is it safer to fly or drive? square6 Low risk driver: 40 year old, alcohol free, belted driver travelling on rural interstate roads in a car 700 pounds heavier than average: square6 High risk driver: 18 year old, intoxicated, unbelted male driver travelling average roads in a car that is 700 pounds lighter than average: 12.56 x 0.548 x 0.608 x 0.492 x 0.737 x 0.530=0.804 fatalities per billion miles driven 12.56 x 5.10 x 7.66 x 1.399 x 1.356 x 1=930.8 fatalities per billion miles driven Is it safer to fly or drive? square6 The 0.55 fatalities per billion passenger miles airline rate would be independent of travel distance only if crashes were equally likely at all points on the trip. This is not the case, 90% of lethal accidents occur in the take-off/climb or descent/landing phases . square6 The concentration of hazard at the beginning and end of flights leads us to make the assumption that when a passenger boards a regularly scheduled US domestic flight, fatality risk is independent of the scheduled distance of travel. square6 If average passenger trip distance is 880 miles then 880 x 0.55=484 deaths per billion flights. r=484/d fatalities per billion miles square6 The low risk driver has a lower fatality risk on trips of less than 600 miles if he drives rather than flies
8 Is it safer to fly or drive? Is it safer to fly or drive? square6 Barnett criticizes that Evans et al is using macro data for calculating air travel fatality rates however when one disintegrates data for jet plane and piston aircraft , then the rate of 0.55 fatalities per billion miles travelled goes down considerably for jet planes. square6 Barnett also mentions that Evans et al is assuming constant risk for the whole distance travelled by car. This is actually not correct. Risk increases towards the end of the trip with increasing distance travelled . However the data in hand probably is dominated by short distance trips for which risk is much lower than that of long distance trips.

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• Spring '10
• fernando
• Evans, air travel, fatality rate

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