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Overall pharmaceutical exports are estimated to increase at a CAGR of 30-32 per cent and reach US$ 18.3 billion in 2010-11. Moving at a healthy CAGR of 30-35 per cent, formulation exports are estimated to reach US$ 9.6 billion by 2010-11 and would surpass bulk drugs which are estimated to reach US$ 8.7 billion at a CAGR of 25 per cent in the same period.The predictions made by Indian Pharmaceutical Alliance (IPA) are more bullish and estimate that the total export market would generate US$ 27 billion by 2012. Demand from regulated markets bound to increaseTraditionally, semi-regulated markets which comprise of Asia, Africa, Central Asian Republics (CAR), Confederation of Independent States (CIS) and Latin American nations, have accounted for the majority of formulations demand. However, over the past couple of years a gradual shift has been observed in the region-wise revenue mix. Over the past few years, the increasing demand of generics from the regulated regions has driven the proportion of sales to the regulated markets to 36 per cent in 2005-06 from 24 per cent in 2000-01. Exports to regulated markets surged by a CAGR of 33 per cent as compared to a CAGR of 15 per cent in the semi-regulated markets during 2000-01 to 2004-05. Formulation exports to regulated markets are estimated to increase at a high CAGR of over 41 per cent to reach US$ 4.7 billion, by 2010-11, whereas the demand from semi-regulated region would experience a modest CAGR of around 26 per cent, to reach US$ 4.9 billion in the same period.Increasing use of generic medication in the regulated market is the key reason for the high formulation demand from these regions. Generics to drive the growth of Indian exportsGlobally, healthcare authorities are laying greater emphasis on promoting the use of generics to contain the public healthcare expenditure. The demand for generic medicines is expected to be significant from both, the United States (US) and European Union (EU) due to favourable regulatory framework. Generic medication is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.7 per cent between 2005-10 to reach US$ 85.7 billion. Patent expiry of existing medication is expected to contribute 9-10 percent of the total sales.Forecasted Export RevenuesnFormulations nBulk DrugsSource: CRIS INFAC046810121416182022010-112005-062.42.88.79.6US$ billionFormulation Exports Demand OutlooknRegulated Markets nSemi-regulated MarketsSource: CRIS INFAC046810122US$ billion0.81.62.42005-062010-18.104.22.168CAGR 32.1%(CAGR 41.6%)(CAGR 25.6%)
5PHARMACEUTICALSIndian companies are likely to be the key beneficiaries of the growth of the generics segment, owing to higher emphasis laid by them on this market over the past few years. This is evident from the aggressive Drug Master File (DMF) and Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) filings made by Indian players. Indian companies received 57 ANDA approvals from US FDA during January-November 2006 as compared to 50 ANDA approvals in 2005.