The strong rise in current market prices draws

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The strong rise in current market prices draws special attention, as well as limitations on availability reported by some entrepreneurs. The modules represent the main component in the range of CAPEX costs. The recent volatility as well as the uncertainties in the international PV chain makes the cost projection of this component an important risk factor. The CAPEX is mostly exposed to Exchange Rate variations. This, in turn, heavily influenced by the political and economic scenario. It is worth remembering that 2018, year of elections in the country, and 2019, beginning of a new government, the scenarios become even more complex.
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Composition of CAPEX Local Modules Although locally assembled, the local modules depend on imported parts which is subject to the direct impact of the exchange rate. Scenarios 2017 2018 2019 2020 Local Modules (US$/Wp) US$ 0.660/Wp (include taxes) US$ 0.633/Wp (include taxes) US$ 0.624/Wp (include taxes) US$ 0.614/Wp (include taxes) Local Modules (R$/Wp) R$ 2.106/Wp (dollar base R$3.19) R$ 2.088/Wp (dollar base R$3.30) R$ 2.058/Wp (dollar base R$3.30) R$ 2.027/Wp (dollar base R$3.30) Note. 1: polycrystalline modules were evaluated, due to the fact of being the only nationally produced module on a large scale. Note. 2: the prices already include taxes. There was a module price increase in 2017 due to high demand and raw material supply deficit. The expectation is that the module prices will decrease in the following years, but it's hard to foresee when it will reach the same prices as in the beginning of 2017.
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What is the prices expectation for imported modules in the evaluated scenarios? Scenarios 2017 2018 2019 2020 Imported Modules (US$/Wp) US$ 0.472/Wp (include taxes) US$ 0.452/Wp (include taxes) US$ 0.445/Wp (include taxes) US$ 0.439/Wp (include taxes) Imported Modules (R$/Wp) R$ 1.504/Wp (dollar base R$3.19) R$ 1.491/Wp (dollar base R$3.30) R$ 1.470/Wp (dollar base R$3.30) R$ 1.448/Wp (dollar base R$3.30) Note. 1: polycrystalline modules were evaluated, due to the fact of being the only nationally produced module on a large scale. Note. 2: the prices already include taxes. There was a module price increase in 2017 due to high demand and supply deficit. The expectation is that the module prices will decrease in the following years, but it's hard to foresee when it will reach the same prices as in the beginning of 2017. Composition of CAPEX Imported Modules
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To understand the impact of module costs in a PV Plant, a CAPEX composition for a hypothetical project will be presented. DC Power: 106.2 MWp AC Power: 90 MW Modules: Polycrystalline 330 Wp Inverters: Central 2 MW Structure: Single Axis Tracker +50°/-50° Connection : 10 km Line at 69kV, connection to 69 kV Bay Substation: 3 smaller substations and a central, with central power transformer. Power plant: 3 solar fields of 30 MW. CAPEX Composition Hypothetical Case Study : 90 MW PV Power Plant
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Values in R$/Wp Imported Module % Local Module % Modules R$ 1.504 47.10% R$ 2.106 55.51% Inverters R$ 0.287 8.99% R$ 0.287 7.57% Structure R$ 0.383 11.99% R$ 0.383 10.09% Substations (3 smaller and one central, without transformer) R$ 0.287 8.99% R$ 0.287 7.57% Central Transformer R$ 0.026 0,81% R$ 0.026 0,67% Transmission Line R$ 0.200 6.26% R$ 0.200 5.27% Works and Engineering R$ 0.300 9,40% R$ 0.300 7.91% Management R$ 0.080 2.51% R$ 0.080 2.11% Development R$ 0.006 0,19% R$ 0.006 0,14% Others R$ 0.120 3.76%
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  • Fall '19
  • Photovoltaics, Weighted average cost of capital

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