CA2320EN.pdf

The potential for cassava to compete in markets

This preview shows page 15 - 18 out of 108 pages.

The potential for cassava to compete in markets beyond China is also uncertain, given that international maize prices are currently hovering at relatively low levels. While cassava root prices in Southeast Asia have firmed in 2018, the outlook for next year and beyond will greatly depend on whether producers would be willing to accept the continued risks of dwindling demand in China. Already some indication is provided by way of a recent official 1 Cassava chips/pellets have proven to be an effective energy substitute for cereals in pig and poultry diets (see j1255e0a.htm ), while cassava starch is the preferred starch in applications that use native starch, and paper and textile industries that use modified starches (see ).
Image of page 15

Subscribe to view the full document.

Commodity focus 14 FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2018 survey of planting intentions in Thailand, which shows optimism in the form of a prospective 5 percent increase in cassava area in 2019. PRICES International quotations of cassava and cassava products recover strongly in 2018 The rally in international quotations of cassava products that began in the last quarter of 2017 continued into the first six months of 2018, but has since lost momentum. Virtually all international trade flows of cassava take place within the boundaries of East and Southeast Asia, in which f.o.b prices of Thai products, by virtue of the country being the leading exporter, represent the benchmarks. Thai chip prices (f.o.b. Bangkok) were being quoted at around USD 233 per tonne in October 2018, some 25 percent higher than in the corresponding month of last year, and 49 percent more than in May 2017, when they had plummeted to an eight-year low. Thai flour and starch prices (Super High Grade, f.o.b. Bangkok) were being quoted at around USD 507 per tonne, 44 percent higher than in October 2017. Quotations have exhibited considerable volatility throughout 2018, beginning the year at USD 433, climbing to USD 550 in May, and then falling Figure 3. Thai root producer prices (Oct. 2012 - Oct. 2018) 50 125 200 275 350 Oct-18 Nov-17 Nov-16 Nov-15 USD per tonne China maize (Dalian, nearby futures) Chips (shipments to China) Figure 2. China maize and Thai cassava chips prices (Nov 2015 - Oct 2018) Figure 1. International cassava and Thai domestic prices (Nov 2015 - Oct 2018) 0 160 320 480 640 800 960 Oct-18 Nov-17 Nov-16 Nov-15 Flour/Starch (Super High Grade FOB Bangkok) USD per tonne US maize starch export unit value Table 1. World cassava market at a glance 2016 2017 estim. 2018 f’cast Change: 2018 over 2017 million tonnes fresh root equiv. % WORLD BALANCE Production 276.5 275.7 277.1 0.5 Trade 43.5 43.6 27.7 -36.4 SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS Per caput food consumption: World (kg/yr) 20.0 19.9 19.8 -0.6 Developing (kg/yr) 24.3 23.7 23.5 -0.7 LIFDC (kg/yr) 66.7 66.4 66.1 -0.5 Sub-Saharan Africa 87.4 86.2 85.7 -0.5 Trade share of production (%) 15.7 15.8 10.0 -36.7 CASSAVA PRICES * (USD/tonne) 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Oct Change: Jan-Oct 2018 over Jan-Oct 2017 % Chips to China (f.o.b.Bangkok) 176.8 170.8 233.0 40.9 Starch (f.o.b. Bangkok) 350.9 341.5 501.2 52.6 Thai domestic root prices (20-25% starch content) 49.8 52.1 86.7 76.9 Source: Thai Tapioca Trade Association (TTTA), FAO 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Oct-18 Nov-17 Nov-16 Nov-15 USD per tonne
Image of page 16
Cassava 15 FOOD OUTLOOK
Image of page 17

Subscribe to view the full document.

Image of page 18

{[ snackBarMessage ]}

What students are saying

  • Left Quote Icon

    As a current student on this bumpy collegiate pathway, I stumbled upon Course Hero, where I can find study resources for nearly all my courses, get online help from tutors 24/7, and even share my old projects, papers, and lecture notes with other students.

    Student Picture

    Kiran Temple University Fox School of Business ‘17, Course Hero Intern

  • Left Quote Icon

    I cannot even describe how much Course Hero helped me this summer. It’s truly become something I can always rely on and help me. In the end, I was not only able to survive summer classes, but I was able to thrive thanks to Course Hero.

    Student Picture

    Dana University of Pennsylvania ‘17, Course Hero Intern

  • Left Quote Icon

    The ability to access any university’s resources through Course Hero proved invaluable in my case. I was behind on Tulane coursework and actually used UCLA’s materials to help me move forward and get everything together on time.

    Student Picture

    Jill Tulane University ‘16, Course Hero Intern