# Year forecast demand actual demand forecast error

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Year Forecast Demand Actual Demand |Forecast Error| Cumulative Error MAD Tracking Signal 1 78 71 7 7 7.0 -1.0 2 75 80 5 12 6.0 -0.3 3 83 101 18 30 10.0 +1.6 4 84 84 0 30 7.5 +2.1 5 88 60 28 58 11.6 -1.0 6 85 73 12 70 11.7 -2.1 Tracking Signal = RFSE MAD MADs = = 24 117 21 . .

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10 Problem 7: Equally dividing the annual sales of 10,000 units over the four seasons: 10,000/4 = 2,500 The seasonal index for each quarter is: Spring 4,000/2,500 = 1.6 Summer 3,000/2,500 = 1.2 Fall 2,000/2,500 = 0.8 Winter 1,000/2,500 = 0.4 Problem 8: Next years sales should be 11,000 pumps ( , * . , ). 10 000 110 11 000 = Sales for each quarter should be 1/4 of the annual sales times the quarterly index computed in Problem 7. Spring (11,000/4) * 1.6 = 4,400 Summer (11,000/4) * 1.2 = 3,300 Fall (11,000/4) * 0.8 = 2,200 Winter (11,000/4) * 0.4 = 1,100
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