forecasted demand is heavily impacted by a large sudden increase in demand from 2014, 28 units, to 2015, 148 units. The upward trend is also supported by the purchase intend survey that estimated 583 new adopters of Phone C. Phone C Forecast Year Actual Sales Projected Forecasted Values 2016 83 101 2017 101 113 2018 113 121 Table 5: Forecasted Values for 2016 Through 2018 7
PHONE4U SHANGHAI MANUFACTURING PLANT FORECASTING Recommendations So far the forecasting has only used a method that looks at past data to predict future events and not had any human input into the forecast. A subjective forecast combined the data from the models with some human input that can look at information not included in these model, like global trends for similar products and advertising plans for the company. When looking at forecasting demand for Phone C into two geographical regions, it would make for a better forecast if information from those regions were included in the forecast. The two regions that Phone C will be primarily marketed to, China and India, have factors that will influence the demand for this product. India is the second largest market for smartphones in the world but smartphones have only had a 30 percent penetration of the 220 million people living there. (Can Growth In India Boost Samsung’s Mobile Phone Revenues, 2016). Similarly, by 2008 in China, the number of mobile phone users had increased to just half of its 1.3 billion population with many younger users playing a large part of the mobile handset replacement market (Sun, Ju, & Zhang, 2012). Both of these markets could see a lot of potential growth, especially of the benefits of costs and features are marketed heavily. With these two regions in mind, I would suggest adding an additional 15 percent to the forecasted values determined by the double exponential smoothing model. The results of adding this additional increase due to suspected market demand are shown in Table 7. This additional 15 percent continues the trend towards increasing sales in the past, with the exception if 2014. Phone C Forecast Year Actual Sales Projected Forecasted Values 2016 83 116 2017 116 148 2018 148 179 Table 7: Final Recommended Forecast of Phone C 8
PHONE4U SHANGHAI MANUFACTURING PLANT FORECASTING References Cachon, G., & Terwiesch, C. (2017). Operations Management (1st ed.). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill. Can Growth In India Boost Samsung’s Mobile Phone Revenues? (2016). FRPT- Telecom Snapshot, 24–25. Retrieved from ? direct=true&db=bth&AN=118552825&site=eds-live&scope=site GDP growth. (n.d.). Retrieved June 6, 2019, from Sun Z., Ju H., & Zhang S. (2012). Who Are Intending to Upgrade Their Mobile Phones? An Investigation among Chinese Young People. China Media Research, 8(3), 92–101. Retrieved from ? direct=true&db=ufh&AN=78384398&site=eds-live&scope=site 9
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