Autor et al 2013 analyze us commuting zones to assess

Info icon This preview shows pages 6–8. Sign up to view the full content.

Autor et al. (2013) analyze U.S. commuting zones to assess the effect of exposure to Chinese imports; they estimate that competition from Chinese imports accounts for 44% of the decline in U.S. manufacturing employment between 1990 and 2007; in the more recent part of the sample, 2000–2007, they estimate that 55% of manufacturing jobs lost were displaced by Chinese imports. They find that local labor markets more exposed to China’s competition also experienced a decline in labor force participation as well as an increase in disability benefits and other transfers over the 2000–2007 period. Caliendo et al. (2015) estimate that nearly one third of the U.S. manufacturing jobs lost between 2000 and 2007 (800,000 out of about 3 million) were displaced by competition from Chinese exports to the U.S. (though they also note that cheaper imports of Chinese intermediate inputs and consumer goods were instrumental in fueling a similarly-sized jobs growth in other sectors of the economy). This review of the literature suggests that we are far from a fully satisfactory understanding of the impact of new technologies on jobs. The main takeaways, in our view, are: The evidence available to date supports the idea that innovation will lead to stronger overall job creation in the long run, by boosting economic growth and purchasing power and enabling the rise of new jobs. This is consistent with the historical experience of the past two centuries. Some categories of jobs have already been displaced, however, and others are at risk (truckdrivers threatened by autonomous vehicles are an obvious example). Wider sections of the workforce will be impacted as technology changes the way that their jobs are carried out and the tasks they involve. Innovation will continue to change the distribution of available jobs across industries, the types of jobs available and the skills required. This disruption is set to accelerate with the faster adoption of robotics, artificial intelligence, and additive manufacturing— just to name three prominent new technologies impacting industry, all driven by digital innovation. An increasing number of tasks will be automated or modified by new technologies; this holds the key to a better understanding of how jobs will change. Too often the public debate is dominated by fears that innovation will cause a sharp rise in unemployment, equating a job’s share of tasks that are at risk of automation with the probability that the entire job will be
Image of page 6

Info icon This preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 11 (2018–42) Global Solutions Papers 7 automated. This generates dramatic media headlines, but misses the more complex and nuanced relationship between human abilities and technological capabilities: There will be jobs where over 50% of the tasks can be automated, but the minority share of tasks that cannot be automated is crucial to the nature of the job itself; this could lead to a situation where the worker keeps the job, outsources some of the tasks to the
Image of page 7
Image of page 8
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

{[ snackBarMessage ]}

What students are saying

  • Left Quote Icon

    As a current student on this bumpy collegiate pathway, I stumbled upon Course Hero, where I can find study resources for nearly all my courses, get online help from tutors 24/7, and even share my old projects, papers, and lecture notes with other students.

    Student Picture

    Kiran Temple University Fox School of Business ‘17, Course Hero Intern

  • Left Quote Icon

    I cannot even describe how much Course Hero helped me this summer. It’s truly become something I can always rely on and help me. In the end, I was not only able to survive summer classes, but I was able to thrive thanks to Course Hero.

    Student Picture

    Dana University of Pennsylvania ‘17, Course Hero Intern

  • Left Quote Icon

    The ability to access any university’s resources through Course Hero proved invaluable in my case. I was behind on Tulane coursework and actually used UCLA’s materials to help me move forward and get everything together on time.

    Student Picture

    Jill Tulane University ‘16, Course Hero Intern