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(Other routes are also being cancelled; for example, Russia and Kyrgyzstan have closed land borders.) Figure 4: Which countries are directly affected by health impacts or flight cancellations? Source: Own elaboration Notes: Index 1 is calculated based on 3 indicators: 1) reported confirmed cases of Coronavirus; 2) reported reduction, suspension and cancellation of flights following the Coronavirus outbreak; and 3) imposed travel ban to and from China and entry restrictions against Chinese. A high risk is tagged in the presence of the indicator in countries. Each indicator is given an equal weight of 0.33, with the highest possible index score of 1. Refer to raw data and sources in Appendices 1 and 2. We then examine which countries are most exposed to Coronavirus through economic channels (see Figure 5). As explained above, this consists of direct links with China and the wider world
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9 more generally. This clearly shows that Mongolia, Cambodia and Laos, followed by other, mostly Asian, countries (e.g. Myanmar, the Philippines and Vietnam), are the most affected. African countries follow, including Angola, Republic of Congo, Sierra Leone, Lesotho and Zambia. This is because these countries have more intense trade and investment relationships with China. Figure 6 shows that five countries are least well placed to do something about the crisis (Ethiopia, Laos, Pakistan, Ghana and Sudan). This is because they have fewer reserves or fiscal resources to counter the effects of the virus and because their health systems do not provide sufficient quality and access. Figure 7 brings together Figures 4 6 and presents an overall vulnerability index. This is calculated based on the aggregation of indices 1, 2 and 3, with the highest possible score of 3. It uses 20 indicators for the direct economic impact of the Coronavirus outbreak, the direct and indirect exposure to China and the economic resilience of 97 countries, of which 18 are low-income countries, 37 are lower-middle-income countries and 42 are middle-upper-income countries. Raw data and sources are available from Appendices 1 and 2. Vietnam, Sri Lanka and Philippines, followed by Kazakhstan, Cambodia, Kenya, Malaysia and Nepal, are the most vulnerable to Coronavirus because they are most exposed to China and least well placed to address the impacts. Figure 5: Countries with the greatest exposure to a China slowdown directly or indirectly Source: Own elaboration Notes: The calculation of sub-index 2a is based on the following six indicators: export of goods to China/total country export goods (%); import of goods from China/total country import goods (%); total trade (exports+imports) with China/country’s total trade with the world (%); total trade with China/GDP (%); China outward FDI stock in country/GDP (%); and Chinese tourist arrivals/total tourist arrivals in country. A high risk is tagged if an indicator exceeds 10%. Each indicator is given an equal weight of 0.17, with the highest possible sub-index score of 1. Meanwhile, sub-index 2b is calculated based on five indicators: exports of
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