Note for the legend ben benin bfa burkina faso civ

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Note for the legend: BEN – Benin, BFA – Burkina Faso, CIV – Côte d’Ivoire, CPV – Cape Verde, GHA – Ghana, GIN – Guinea, GMB – The Gambia, GNB – Guinea Bissau, LBR – Liberia, MLI – Mali, NER – Niger, NGA – Nigeria, SEN – Senegal, SLE – Sierra Leone, and TGO – Togo. Source: Authors’ estimates from FAO food security indicators. Undernourishment Prevalence (% of total population in 2012) Annual average growth rate (%) 0 8.75 17.50 26.25 35.00 Togo Sierra Leone Senegal Nigeria Niger Mali Liberia Guinea Bissau Gambia Guinea Ghana Cape Verde Cote d'Ivoire Burkina Faso Benin -12 -8 -4 0 4 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE IN WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES
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63 Despite progress, the situation remains serious in most countries, particularly Liberia and Sierra Leone, where undernourishment affected 31.4 percent and 28.8 percent of the population, respectively, in 2012. The undernourishment prevalence rate was above 20 percent in Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal in the same year. Given the impact of the EVD on sectoral output, especially agricultural outputs, and overall economic growth, food insecurity is expected to be deeply affected in a negative way, particularly in the three epicentre countries. The results of the econometric estimation indicate that there is a negative and significant statistical relationship between the undernourishment prevalence rate and the rate of economic growth (see table 13 and figures 32-35). Table 13: Food security panel data model results Log of undernoutrition Coefficient Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Confidence - Interval] Log of GDP per capita -.3901932 .0317976 -12.27 0.000 -.4527775 -.3276089 Log of labour 1.588818 .4351351 3.65 0.000 .7323824 2.445254 Trade openness ratio .0015213 .0009085 1.67 0.095 -.0002669 .0033094 Burkina Faso .1389659 .0958749 1.45 0.148 -.0497357 .3276674 Cote d’Ivoire .5394639 .0850728 6.34 0.000 .3720232 .7069047 Cape Verde .4678934 .0940117 4.98 0.000 .2828591 .6529278 Ghana -.0304974 .0742438 -0.41 0.682 -.1766246 .1156298 Guinea .2174014 .0690204 3.15 0.002 .081555 .3532478 Gambia .2364316 .0736268 3.21 0.001 .0915189 .3813442 Guinea Bissau .1271463 .0702 1.81 0.071 -.0110218 .2653144 Liberia .5622215 .1298036 4.33 0.000 .3067412 .8177018 Mali .5081266 .1369746 3.71 0.000 .2385324 .7777209 Niger .477993 .0993169 4.81 0.000 .2825169 .673469 Nigeria .0801303 .1357143 0.59 0.555 -.1869834 .347244 Senegal .4327793 .0746103 5.80 0.000 .2859309 .5796277 Sierra Leone .9007052 .0846185 10.64 0.000 .7341586 1.067252 Togo .1905544 .0809944 2.35 0.019 .0311406 .3499681 Constant -1.833065 1.915975 -0.96 0.340 -5.604099 1.937969 Number of obs = 307 F( 17, 289) = 55.25 Prob > F = 0.0000 R-squared = 0.7647 Adjusted R-squared = 0.7509 Root MSE = .21909 Source: Authors’ estimation SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE IN WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES
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64 Liberia was the second most affected country in the three countries as of 28 December 2014. In the case of a low level of infection, the prevalence of undernourishment could increase by 2.82 percent in 2014, compared to the trend observed between 1992 and 2012. In the low Ebola scenario, this increase could reach 4.17 percent in 2015 and 5.27 percent in 2016. In the high Ebola scenario, the prevalence of undernourishment increases by 5.80 percent in 2016. These results are consistent with observations that are visible on the ground. In fact, in addition to the worsening of income poverty that reduces capacity to access food, the epidemic has left its mark on the country’s agricultural production and marketing systems. The Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS, 2014) observed that the areas with high incidences of the EVD are among the most productive regions of Liberia, and that the outbreak of the EVD, together with the restrictions on the movement of people and
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