In our view would be a risky strategy and would weigh

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in our view would be a risky strategy and would weigh on markets. In addition to risks around the USMCA, we also believe that tariffs on autos and auto parts remain a possibility, with action, should it come, occurring this spring. On a more positive note, relations between the U.S. and China seem to be improving. A commitment to keep negotiating would likely delay the March 1 increase of tariffs to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods. The Trump administration’s concerns regarding China’s industrial policy still stand (e.g., state subsidization of the private sector, forced technology transfer), but the president, who is sensitive to financial markets and economic concerns over the trade tensions, may be more inclined to take a smaller deal in the name of a political victory. Fiscal stimulus
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We estimate the fiscal stimulus from the 2017 tax bill and 2018 spending bill will contribute 0.4 percentage points to real growth in 2019, but we expect that stimulus to fade as the year goes on, and importantly, we do not expect additional fiscal stimulus at this point. An infrastructure deal
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