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Moreover, as Nick Bisley of La Trobe University writes, despite a U.S. China policy that blends containment with moral suasion, “it is far from clear that China can be contained or cowed into submission.” Ultimately, “the region’s two major powers have irreconcilable visions for Asia’s future.” If that is the case, expect rocky times ahead as differences of interest not only manifest in furthernaval and air confrontations, but also introduce further friction into competing visions of the economic and security architecture of Asia. The result is a net loss for all countries concerned.
at: econ low nowIt’s not a crisis --- decline is controlled and growth is robust in core CCP hubsSambijantoro, 16– journalist for Jakarta Post, master’s degree in public policy at Peking University (Sanja, Jakarta Post, “Is the ‘China economic crisis’ overblown or a ‘new normal’”, 1/15/16, -normal.html, //11)Unlike in 2008, when the stock and housing market crash in the US and the impact rippled through to the real sector through rampant layoffs and mortgage closures in a flash, optimism among the Chinese remains intact despite the slowdownand the constant, worrying drops in the stock markets of Shanghai and Shenzhen since mid-2015. Most importantly, the terms “economic crisis” or “market crash” were never mentioned by my economics professors at Peking University, a campus known for its culture of being critical toward the government. They showed no gesture of worry at all. One of my professors coolly explained that Chinese policymakersmight have decelerated growth on purpose, as overly fast economic growth had predisposed the country to overheating. This is why, despite the lingering slowdown, China’s fiscal and monetary policy stances are still at a rather tight setting, not an expansionary one. The no-big-deal viewpoint of my professors is shared by most Chinese: Their country is growing slower, but it is far from falling into an economic disaster. In short, the nation is just experiencing a rational slowdownneeded to steer the economy toward a healthier and more sustainable growth path, which will mean more efficient utilization of resources and less pollution. Over the past two decades, annual GDP growth in China has averaged around an impressive 10 percent, underpinned mostly by investments, as well as exports. As China’s reliance on investment grows, its efficiency falls, hence the long-run unsustainability of this growth model. As capital accumulates, the capital-output ratio will trend lower meaning that China will need a higher and higher level of capital if it wants to record the same level of growth. China stubbornly relying on investments would only lead to a piling up of debts, inefficient usage of resources and overexploitation of the environment. This is why China wants to drive its growth not with
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People's Republic of China, Hu Jintao, President Xi Jinping, Strongman Xi