2 12 20 8 8 64 6667 3 16 12 4 4 16 2500 4 10 16 6 6 36 6000 5 17 10 7 7 49 4118

2 12 20 8 8 64 6667 3 16 12 4 4 16 2500 4 10 16 6 6

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21220-886466.67%31612441625.00%41016-663660.00%51710774941.18%61317-441630.77%7d)135.836.244.72%a) MAEb) MSEc) MAPE
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Week (t)Value (y)Moving Avgsqr error118a)21331641115.6721.7851713.3313.4461414.670.447b)14.0011.89 b)WeekValueExp. Smoothsqr erroralpha1180.32131825damping31616.50.250.741116.3528.622551714.7455.0961415.422.027c)15.0012.20 c)1202468101214161820
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3456Value (y)
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Week (t)sqr errorsqr error11822231542451819.753.062561519.7522.562519.419.3672118918.84.8481919.50.2518.60.1692118.257.562519.42.56102019118.81.44111620.2518.062519.210.24122219919.46.76MSE8.8125 MSE6.48Sales (1,000s of gallons) (y)4-Wk Moving Avg5-Wk Moving Avg
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YearPeriod (t)Enrollment (1000s)200116.5a)200228.1200338.42004410.22005512.52006613.32007713.72008817.22009918.1SUMMARY OUTPUTRegression StatisticsMultiple R0.98680551R Square0.97378512Adjusted R Sq 0.97004014Standard Erro 0.69972784Observations9b) 0.38081481c)ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression1 127.312667 127.312667 260.023925 8.5768E-007Residual7 3.42733333 0.48961905Total8130.74CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Intercept4.720.50834049 9.27855791 3.4971E-005 3.51463242 5.91870092Period (t)1.460.09033448 16.1252574 8.5768E-007 1.24305958 1.67027376b)RESIDUAL OUTPUTObservationed Enrollment Residuals1 6.17333333 0.3266666727.630.473 9.08666667 -0.686666674 10.5433333 -0.343333335120.56 13.4566667 -0.156666677 14.9133333 -1.21333333816.370.839 17.8266667 0.27333333123402468101214161820Enrollm
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19.28Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%3.51463242 5.918700921.24305958 1.6702737656789ment (1000s)
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YearCost/Unit ($)120a)224.5-4.5328.2-3.7427.50.7526.60.9630-3.4731-1836-5SUMMARY OUTPUTRegression StatisticsMultiple R0.92187792R Square0.8498589Adjusted R Sq 0.82483538Standard Erro 1.97256983b)2.92Observations8d)35.96ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression1132.14881132.14881 33.9624085 0.00112321Residual623.34619053.89103175Total7155.495CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Intercept19.991.53701403 13.0075957 1.2717E-005 16.231919323.753795Year1.770.30437413 5.82772756 0.00112321 1.029032852.5185862b)c)1.77RESIDUAL OUTPUTObservationicted Cost/UnResiduals1 21.7666667 -1.766666672 23.5404762 0.959523813 25.3142857 2.885714294 27.0880952 0.41190476
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