HAZARD RISK DESCRI PTION RISK OWN ER LIKELI HOOD IMPACT RATIN G CONTROLS 1

Hazard risk descri ption risk own er likeli hood

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HAZARD RISK DESCRI PTION RISK OWN ER LIKELI HOOD IMPACT RATIN G CONTROLS 1 Power outages (C) GoK 4 1 4 2 Striga (M) GoK 4 1 4 3 Hailstorms (T) GoK 3 1 4 4 Theft (M, C, T) GoK 3 1 3
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5 Stalk borer (S) GoK 3 1 3 6 Foot & Mouth Disease (L) GoK 3 1 3 7 Termites (S) GoK 3 1 3 8 Frost (T) Untimely GoK 2 1 2 9 Power outage (C) GoK 2 1 2 10 input credit (C) GoK 2 1 2 11 Thrips (tea) GoK 1 2 2 12 Windstorm s (M, W, S, B GoK 1 2 2 13 Cattle rustling GoK 4 2 2 14 Erratic rainfall GoK 4 2 8 Foot & Mouth GoK 4 2 8 15 Stem borer Disease GoK 4 2 8 16 Erratic inputs (i.e., quality) GoK 3 2 6 17 Regional drought GoK 3 2 6 18 Unpredicta bility of SGR release (M) GoK 3 2 6 19 CLR/CBD GoK 3 2 6
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(C) 20 Lifting import tariff (M,S) GoK 3 2 6 21 Policy risk (S) GoK 3 2 6 22 Flooding 2 2 4 23 Maize dwarf mosaic virus GoK 2 2 4 24 Sugarcane mosaic virus GoK 2 2 4 25 Drought (S) GoK 2 2 4 26 Maize chlorotic virus GoK 2 2 4 27 Severe drought GoK 3 3 9 28 Crop/livest ock diseases GoK 3 3 9 29 Price volatility GoK 3 3 9 30 Maize lethal necrosis GoK 2 3 6 31 Conflict GoK 2 3 6 32 Maize streak virus GoK 2 3 6 33 Theft (M,L) GoK 2 3 6 34 Ratoon stunting disease GoK 2 3 6 35 Price shock GoK 2 3 6 36 Anthrax (L) GoK 1 3 3
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Figure 1: PRIORITIZATION OF KEY AGRICULTURAL RISKS IN KENYA Severity of Impact Negligible Moderate Considerable Catastrophic Highly probable Power outages (C) Striga (M) Cattle rustling Erratic rainfall Foot & Mouth Disease Stem borer (M) Probable Hailstorms (T) Theft (M, C, T) Stalk borer Erratic inputs (i.e., quality) Regional drought Unpredictability Severe drought Crop/livestoc k diseases Price Occasional Frost (T) Power outage (C) Untimely input credit (C) Flooding Maize dwarf mosaic virus Sugarcane mosaic virus Drought (S) Maize chlorotic virus Maize lethal necrosis Conflict Maize streak virus Theft (M,L) Ratoon stunting disease Price shock Remote Thrips (tea) Windstorms (M, W, S, B Anthrax (L) Key: Maize, Wheat, Beans, Cowpeas, Irish Potato, Tea, Coffee, Sugarcane, Cut flowers, Bananas, Livestock Source: Author notes. The prioritization results from the risk map indicate that the most significant risks that face the Kenya’s agriculture sector are: Severe drought: affects both livestock and crop production; Price volatility; Livestock and Crop diseases. Floods, Erratic rainfall, conflict and cattle rustling are also shown as important, however to a lesser extent.
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RISK MANAGEMENT MEASURES In order to develop an effective risk management mechanism, a combination of coordinated measures would be of great importance where some would be structured to directly and fully address the various risks. Therefore this paper classifies the risk management measures in the following three types: 1. Risk mitigation (ex ante): Measures structured to reduce the risk likelihood or the reduction of losses severity.
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  • Fall '16
  • Alex Gitau

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