The main contribution of this paper lies in its

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The main contribution of this paper lies in its development of an index to examine which countries are most vulnerable to virus outbreak and an economic slowdown in China. We quantify the vulnerability of low- and middle-income countries based on impact channels. Some countries are affected by Coronavirus most directly in terms of an already visible direct health impact and direct flight cancellations. These include the Philippines and Vietnam, followed by a range of mainly Asian countries that have recorded infected cases. Some African countries are also included as they have cancelled flights. Meanwhile, countries most exposed to Coronavirus through economic channels include Mongolia, Cambodia and Laos, followed by other, mostly Asian, countries (e.g. Myanmar, Philippines and Vietnam). African countries most exposed in this way include Angola, Republic of Congo, Sierra Leone, Lesotho and Zambia. The least resilient countries in our sample are Ethiopia, Laos, Pakistan, Ghana and Sudan. Taking these indicators together, we present an overall vulnerability index. Sri Lanka, the Philippines and Vietnam, followed by Kazakhstan, Kenya, Cambodia and Nepal, top this index as the most vulnerable countries in economic terms. To address the impacts, countries need to implement a range of health-related policies to contain the spread of the virus. In addition, in economic terms, China has already begun to address economic weaknesses. Other countries need to be aware of the potential fall-out, especially this quarter. Some countries are much more exposed to China than others, but most, if not all, are much more exposed than when a health pandemic struck in 2003.
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17 REFERENCES Anderson, D., Canales Kriljenko, J.I., Drummond, P., Espaillat, P. and Muir, D. (2015) Spillovers from China onto sub-Saharan Africa: insights from the Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM). Working Paper WP/15/221. Washington DC: IMF Durden, T. (2020) ‘ Oil crashes into bear market as Chinese oil demand said to plummet 20% due to coronavirus “demand shock”’, ZeroHedge, 2 February, - 20-due-coronavirus-demand-shock Financial Times, various articles referenced directly. Furceri, D., Tovar Jalles, J. and Zdzienicka, A. (2016) ‘China spillovers: new evidence from time- varying estimates’. Spillover Note 7. Washington DC: IMF Glassman, A . (2020) ‘ Coronavirus and low- income countries: ready to respond?’, CGD Blog, 31 January, He, L. (2020) ‘ The coronavirus could cost China's economy $60 billion this quarter. Beijing will have to act fast to avert a bigger hit,’ CNN Business, 31 January, Hobson, P. (2020) ‘Metals -shanghai copper plunges to 3- year low as Chinese markets reopen’, Reuters, 3 February, - plunges-to-3-year-as-chinese-markets-reopen-idukl8n2a33bd Kawanami, T. (2020) ‘Coronavirus risks dampening global growth: IMF chief’, Nikkei Asian Review, 2 February, -
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