上述 平 均 效 果在评估和构建关于现实的 � 念 � 人们 认 为 他 们的知识和技能高于平 均 水平 显 然不能保持整

上述 平 均 效

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上述 果:在评估和构建关于现实的 ,人们 们的知识和技能高于平 水平。 然不能保持 体性。 在组织 评估过程 Calibration bias : people usually over-estimate the precision of their knowledge and ability to forecast accurately. Perversely, experts may become more convinced of being right despite the inflow of an increasing amount of data that indicates the contrary. 准偏 :人们通常会高估其知识的准确性和准确预测的能力。 过来说, 多的数据 入表明 相反 专家 能会更 是对的。 Excessive optimism : Widespread in project and strategic risks. People tend to underestimate negative factors and overestimate positive outcomes. 过度 乐观 目和 战略 风险 普遍 在。 人们 估消极因 并过高估计 极结果。 The concept of the utility of wealth 财富效 用的概 Utility is a measure that describes our intrinsic satisfaction with respect to something we value. 用是一种 们对自 量标准。 The utility of wealth – U(W) is a measure of how much “intrinsic” i.e. non-monetary value we ascribe to wealth, W. We used the example of a gamble and W to demonstrate the concept of utility. 财富 - U W 财富 即非 货币 W 们用 赌博 的例 W 用的概 Risk preferences are described by the shape of the slope of a functional line mapping between Utility and Wealth 风险偏好由 用和 财富 线 率的形 描述 A risk-neutral investor is described as having a linear marginal utility – the line is straight. They are indifferent to uncertainty 风险 资者被 描述 线 际效 - 线 线 的。 们对不确定性 不关 A risk averse investor is described as having a diminishing marginal utility – the line is concave. They dislike uncertainty 风险规 避投 资者被 描述 减的 际效 - 线 的。 们不 喜欢 不确定性 7
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A risk-seeker is described as having an increasing marginal utility of wealth – the line is convex. They will pay to gain uncertainty. 风险寻 者被 描述 多的 财富 际效 - 线 的。 们会 付出 价来 获得 不确定性 Risk aversion and loss aversion in summary Risk Aversion Humans generally do not like uncertainty and will avoid or reduce the amount they are willing to pay to reduce uncertainty. 通常不 喜欢 不确定性,会 避免 或减少 们为减少不确定 性而 意支 金额 Loss Aversion Humans will dislike to an even greater extent an uncertainty which may cause a loss relative to their current reference point. eg. lost opportunities are disliked less than actual financial losses. 将在更大程度 喜欢 可能导致 对于 参考 失的不确定性。 例如。 会不如实 的经济 失。 Risk Preference An individual’s risk and loss aversion. 个人的风险和 厌恶 Basic maths of probabilities (dependency) Probability = Number of wanted outcomes / Number of possible outcomes - E.g. Probability of rolling a die and getting a “6” = 1/6 Two events are independent when the outcome of the first event does not influence the outcome of the second event . - P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B) e.g. rolling 2 sixes = P(6 and 6)=1/6 x 1/6 Two events are dependent when the outcome of the first event influences the outcome of the second event . The probability of two dependent events is the product of the probability of A and the probability of B AFTER A occurs.
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