Projection of historical data analyzing objectives

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(projection of historical data, analyzing objectives) used to predict future figures and quantities such as sizes and lengths. Consists of Subjective inputs Generated by the forecaster Includes soft information (human factors, personal opinion, expertise ) used to predict what something in the future will be in terms of things other than set figures.
12/6/2019 Dr. Abdulfatah Salem 52 Forecasting Techniques Quantitative Approach Time Series Averaging Techniques Trend Techniques Seasonality Techniques Associative Model Simple regression Qualitative Approach Jury method Delphi method Sales force Consumer survey
12/6/2019 Dr. Abdulfatah Salem 53 Executive Opinion The best- guess estimates of a company’s executives. Each executive submits an estimate of the company’s sales, which are then averaged to form the overall sales forecast. Est. * prob. probability estimation 50 40% 125 Production manager 56 35% 160 marketing manager 25 25% 100 Financial manager 131 General manager
12/6/2019 Dr. Abdulfatah Salem 54 Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups. The technique can also be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE). Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach, prediction markets The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator or change agent provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a predefined stop criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results. The Delphi method is a structured communication technique or method originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts.
12/6/2019 Dr. Abdulfatah Salem 55 Answer
12/6/2019 Dr. Abdulfatah Salem 56 Panel Evaluations ( round 1 ) Panel Evaluations ( round n) Reports Check Criteria No Yes Results
12/6/2019 Dr. Abdulfatah Salem 57 Session 1 Expert 1 5 Expert 2 3 Expert 3 4.5 Expert 4 6 Session 2 4.5 3.5 4 5 Session 3 4 3.5 4 5 Session 4 4 3.5 4 4 Mean Stdev 4.625 1.25 4.25 0.645 4.125 0.629 3.875 0.25 Ex.
12/6/2019 Dr. Abdulfatah Salem 58 Data Recognition Unknown pattern (Random ) Known Pattern Trend long-term movement in data Seasonality short-term regular variations in data Cycle wavelike variations of more than one year’s duration
12/6/2019 Dr. Abdulfatah Salem 59 Time Series Forecasts
12/6/2019 Dr. Abdulfatah Salem 60
12/6/2019 Dr. Abdulfatah Salem 61 1 t t A F Demand Year 390 2006 420 2007 380 2009 400 2010 400 2011
12/6/2019 Dr. Abdulfatah Salem 62 n A A t n t n / ) ( 1 1

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