ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 1 3937366 39373663505 7622155

Anova df ss ms f significance f regression 1 3937366

This preview shows page 35 - 45 out of 45 pages.

ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 1 39.37366 39.373663505 7.622155 0.00825407519 Residual 46 237.6216 5.1656868076 Total 47 276.9953 Coefficients tandard Erro t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 16.27646 0.332937 48.887461521 2.643E-41 15.606289638 16.94663 15.60629 16.94663 DIFF -1.448084 0.524511 -2.7608249869 0.008254 -2.50387003598 -0.392297 -2.50387 -0.392297 Demand=16.28-1.45(DIFF) RESIDUAL OUTPUT MAD= 1.85144801893 Observation Deseasonal Residuals Abs Residuals 1 16.56607 -2.760014 2.760013721 2 15.84203 -1.334676 1.3346758063 3 15.69722 -1.50809 1.5080904812 4 16.27646 -2.040605 2.0406048743 5 15.55242 -1.419275 1.4192748053 6 15.69722 -1.604615 1.6046151998 7 16.13165 -2.732535 2.7325354806 8 17.43492 -5.071288 5.0712881822 9 17.72454 -5.452896 5.4528962638 10 16.42127 -4.209096 4.2090957903 11 16.56607 -4.130038 4.130038291 12 16.42127 -3.196229 3.1962286994 13 15.69722 -1.272982 1.2729817539 14 15.55242 -1.045059 1.0450590579 15 15.84203 -0.398078 0.3980775576 16 15.84203 -0.841839 0.841838622 17 15.84203 -0.855212 0.8552118217 18 15.11799 -0.446233 0.4462334546 19 15.55242 -0.114306 0.1143063713 20 16.71088 -1.565428 1.5654282248 21 16.13165 -0.125156 0.1251557888
Image of page 35
22 16.27646 -0.34754 0.3475399788 23 16.42127 -1.372617 1.3726172815 24 15.98684 0.568946 0.5689464539 25 15.40761 2.519665 2.5196652717 26 14.82837 2.880606 2.8806063344 27 16.56607 0.422276 0.4222760854 28 17.0005 0.579346 0.5793455922 29 16.27646 1.366255 1.3662553371 30 14.82837 1.966927 1.9669270865 31 15.11799 2.747494 2.7474944248 32 15.11799 3.015343 3.0153426164 33 15.11799 2.702572 2.7025720551 34 17.14531 -0.04827 0.0482695729 35 16.56607 1.513205 1.5132049848 36 17.0005 -0.542675 0.5426753732 37 17.57973 1.996025 1.9960245652 38 17.14531 1.864332 1.8643319821 39 16.56607 2.54582 2.5458198869 40 17.72454 1.192901 1.1929006476 41 17.72454 1.246118 1.2461177731 42 17.57973 2.593933 2.5939331991 43 17.43492 1.595701 1.5957008376 44 17.43492 2.655984 2.6559844476 45 18.01416 1.620474 1.6204739143 46 17.57973 2.915474 2.9154744075 47 17.72454 2.444828 2.4448281202 48 18.01416 1.480526 1.4805264308
Image of page 36
%
Image of page 37
SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.9532796021501 R Square 0.9087419998755 Adjusted R 0.9002528835848 Standard E 0.766721094287 Observatio 48 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 4 251.71722348811 62.92931 107.0479 9.0862048E-22 Residual 43 25.278033166257 0.587861 Total 47 276.99525665437 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Intercept 6.3006952839659 3.7252466445094 1.69135 0.098007 -1.2119805642 13.81337 -1.211981 PERIOD 0.0800198639383 0.0267456198965 2.991887 0.004578 0.02608218093 0.133958 0.026082 AIP 0.275845199352 0.5479651246074 0.503399 0.617253 -0.8292317929 1.380922 -0.829232 DIFF 0.1601667367834 0.3326673780688 0.481462 0.632629 -0.5107209695 0.831054 -0.510721 ADV 0.7630664044733 0.2052974782284 3.716882 0.000578 0.34904458161 1.177088 0.349045 Demand=6.3+0.08(Period)+0.28(AIP)+0.16(DIFF)+0.76(ADV) RESIDUAL OUTPUT MAD= 0.55472470118 Observation cted Deseasonalized Residuals Abs RES 1 12.020420420433 1.7856401856279 1.78564 2 13.480061578795 1.0272950929449 1.027295 3 13.902462278778 0.2866713482408 0.286671 4 13.873815208421 0.362037504757 0.362038 5 14.04036536011 0.0927755730314 0.092776 6 13.542637547303 0.5499713611649 0.549971 7 13.682620431519 -0.2835066944438 0.283507 8 13.725319528979 -1.3616831653423 1.361683 9 12.886394624814 -0.614749603169 0.61475 10 13.019567230192 -0.8073970632555 0.807397 11 13.846636824925 -1.4106007888887 1.410601 12 13.724322241488 -0.4992849836637 0.499285 13 14.539478836978 -0.1152364826717 0.115236 14 14.586793254083 -0.0794365735102 0.079437 15 14.475719570412 0.9682353499967 0.968235 16 14.666077514091 0.3341163419177 0.334116 17 14.919848259501 0.0669723968114 0.066972 18 15.086398411189 -0.4146412368011 0.414641
Image of page 38
19 15.215812495117 0.2222968720621 0.222297 20 15.258696291294 -0.1132418192721 0.113242 21 15.631702771288 0.3747906575984 0.374791 22 16.028517043272 -0.0995994345686 0.099599 23 16.113657834109 -1.0650091583459 1.065009 24 16.3732033994 0.1825839023461 0.182584 25 17.036745759965 0.890526880388 0.890527 26 17.388614639381 0.3203655844902 0.320366 27 17.125617980787 -0.1372675683379 0.137268 28 17.233894464138 0.3459505645601 0.345951 29 17.372860095891 0.2698528286286 0.269853 30 17.882444976606 -1.0871440006622 1.087144 31 17.92398457383 -0.0584995199876 0.0585 32 18.245818197827 -0.1124849524123 0.112485 33 18.457313742083 -0.6367510579225 0.636751 34 18.107114696261 -1.0100764629192 1.010076 35 18.202479134401 -0.1231998225462 0.1232 36 18.365924657622 -1.9081005943472 1.908101 37 18.479322067871 1.0964354129738 1.096435 38 18.766452153097 0.2431876352394 0.243188 39 19.194627672961 -0.082733458956 0.082733 40 18.855978266902 0.061463666153 0.061464 41 18.658356088987 0.3123029696365 0.312303 42 19.267401509158 0.9062646056258 0.906265 43 19.467329207157 -0.4367038237163 0.436704 44 19.498626950583 0.5922820429157 0.592282 45 20.216030565053 -0.5813986256187 0.581399 46 19.254669883186 1.2405374400125 1.240537 47 19.388532794535 0.7808366111752 0.780837 48 19.769330392842 -0.274645936939 0.274646
Image of page 39
Upper 95.0% 13.81337 0.133958 1.380922 0.831054 1.177088
Image of page 40
SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.952997 R Square 0.908204 Adjusted R 0.901945 Standard E 0.760188 Observatio 48 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 3 251.5683 83.85608 145.1082 7.8181601E-23 Residual 44 25.427 0.577886 Total 47 276.9953 Coefficients tandard Erro t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Intercept 8.081728 1.156224 6.98976 1.183E-08 5.75151175797 10.411944218 5.751511758 PERIOD 0.084383 0.025087 3.363614 0.001602 0.03382334386 0.1349420261 0.0338233439 DIFF 0.291383 0.204937 1.421817 0.162129 -0.1216403875 0.7044057362 -0.1216403875 ADV 0.74653 0.200926 3.715454 0.000569 0.34159076834 1.1514684469 0.3415907683 Demand=8.08+0.08(Period)+0.29(DIFF)+0.75(ADV) RESIDUAL OUTPUT MAD= 0.55794062694 Observation Deseasonal Residuals Abs Res 1 12.06444 1.74162 1.74162 2 13.37698 1.130374 1.130374 3 13.86377 0.325365 0.325365 4 13.86892 0.366928 0.366928 5 14.02435 0.108795 0.108795 6 13.55702 0.535589 0.535589 7 13.74062 -0.341506 0.341506 8 13.66727 -1.303636 1.303636 9 12.87966 -0.608016 0.608016 10 13.00233 -0.790159 0.790159 11 13.8041 -1.368067 1.368067 12 13.73099 -0.505955 0.505955 13 14.52096 -0.096721 0.096721 14 14.55983 -0.052475 0.052475 15 14.51128 0.932671 0.932671 16 14.59567 0.404527 0.404527 17 14.90401 0.082812 0.082812 18 15.05943 -0.387673 0.387673 19 15.2057 0.232406 0.232406
Image of page 41
20 15.28094 -0.135484 0.135484 21 15.70583 0.30066 0.30066 22 16.05969 -0.130772 0.130772 23 16.18959 -1.140939 1.140939 24 16.43604 0.11975 0.11975 25 17.01024 0.917034 0.917034 26 17.36048 0.3485 0.3485 27 17.24451 -0.256159 0.256159 28 17.31613 0.263715 0.263715 29 17.47155 0.171162 0.171162 30 17.92197 -1.126669 1.126669 31 18.02273 -0.157244 0.157244 32 18.18176 -0.048431 0.048431 33 18.3408 -0.520237 0.520237 34 18.16655 -1.069515 1.069515 35 18.29284 -0.213556 0.213556 36 18.36446 -1.906632 1.906632 37 18.48159 1.094166 1.094166 38 18.72804 0.281597 0.281597 39 19.15294 -0.041043 0.041043 40 18.85491 0.062534 0.062534 41 18.64068 0.329981 0.329981 42 19.20212 0.971549 0.971549 43 19.39029 -0.359666 0.359666 44 19.40002 0.690888 0.690888 45 20.18903 -0.554401 0.554401 46 19.24104 1.254171 1.254171 47 19.44559 0.723783 0.723783 48 19.7703 -0.27562 0.27562
Image of page 42
Upper 95.0% 10.411944218 0.1349420261 0.7044057362 1.1514684469
Image of page 43
Period Price AIP ADV Demand 49 3.1 8.95 12.1 22.93705 50 3.35 9.6 11.3 22.53985 51 4.1 9.05 12.2 22.91785
Image of page 44
Seasonal IndexDe-Sesonalized Forecast 0.9705882353 23.6321121212121 0.9994929006 22.5512857432775 1.0360040568 22.1213902104748
Image of page 45

You've reached the end of your free preview.

Want to read all 45 pages?

  • Fall '16
  • Ms. Slattery
  • Surround sound

  • Left Quote Icon

    Student Picture

  • Left Quote Icon

    Student Picture

  • Left Quote Icon

    Student Picture