Estimate risks necessarily lead to a better

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estimate risks necessarily lead to a better estimation, as the well- known phenomenon of ‘groupthink’ can lead groups to make completely wrong, but agreed, conclusions. The use of a Bow-Tie approach does not, of course, eliminate these problems, merely reduces the likelihood of error by segregating risk analysis into smaller, discrete, independent components and reducing cross-contamination between them. Of course it should be recognized, especially for low-probability events, small errors in one part may be amplified in others – a problem with all subjective techniques. Therefore a good taxonomy is required for homogenous loss data collection that can show when correlation factors are present for broad impacts that cross over from one risk classification into another. (c) UPES, Not for Reproduction/ Sale
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Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ Aviation Safety & Security Management Application of the Bow-Tie Diagram in Scenario Analysis A Bow-Tie diagram is a graphical representation of a Scenario. Having identified a ‘Scenario’, such as flat tyre in the FAA example, the situation can be analysed in a methodical manner, by experts, as follows: Identify potential Causes: using operational/business experts, risk managers and, if appropriate, external experts; Assess the effectiveness of Proactive and Reactive Controls: using independent internal/ external auditors and risk managers; Identify and assess possible Outcomes: using operational/business experts, risk managers and, where possible, internal and external experience; Build a Bow-Tie model of the Scenario (i.e. Causes, Controls and Outcomes): using business and independent assessments and, where available, historical data and evaluate the range/distribution of potential Outcomes and their sensitivity to assumptions of the key parameters; and Refine the Model: based on business/risk management feedback and any additional analyses required. In order to satisfy the requirements, such a process would have to be judged: Methodical: with each component step performed to agreed procedures with well-defined separation of responsibilities; Robust: able to be replicated by different analysts and experts, producing results that are not too dissimilar; Comprehensive and Consistent: used in the same way across all business units; Well-documented: in a consistent fashion with sufficient detail; to permit; Independent Review and Validation : by external and independent experts. It is therefore desirable that a firm should build a “database of scenario based events” that can be reviewed periodically and modified as business conditions change. The consistent use of a Bow-Tie technique should aid the development of such a database, (c) UPES, Not for Reproduction/ Sale
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UNIT 17: Reliability Fundamental Theories Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ allowing rational discussion between risk analysts and business managers to take place when discussing new initiatives, which is a major benefit of such an approach, overcoming a major hurdle in subjective assessment.
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  • Fall '19
  • Instrument approach, Runway, Rajiv, Aviation Safety & Security Management

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