prior to generating alternatives Decision making is a means-ends analysis: first, ends are determined, and then ALL the means to obtain them are sought. The test of a good decision is that it is shown to be the BEST means to achieve the end. ( Optimizing ) Engage in comprehensive analysis; all alternatives and all consequences are considered. Heavy reliance on theory. Administrative Objectives are usually set prior to generating alternatives. Decision making is typically means-ends analysis; however, occasionally ends change as a result of analysis. The test of a good decision is that it can be shown to result in a SATISFACTORY means to achieve the end; it falls within the established boundary conditions. ( Satisficing) Engage in “ problemistic search ” until a set of reasonable alternatives is identified. Reliance on both theory and experience. Incremental Setting objectives and generating alternatives are intertwined. Because means and ends are not separable, means- ends analysis is inappropriate. The test of a good decision is that the decision makers can agree an alternative is the “ right ” direction when the existing course proves to be wrong. ( Successive comparing ) Drastically limit the search and analysis; focus on alternatives similar to the existing state. Many alternatives and important outcomes are ignored. Successive comparisons reduce or eliminate the need for theory. Mixed Scanning Broad policy guidelines are set prior to generating alternatives. Decision making is focused on broad ends and tentative means. The test of a good decision is that it can be shown to result in a satisfactory decision that is consistent with the organization ’ s policy. (Adaptive satisficing ) Limit the search and analysis to alternatives close to the problem, but evaluate alternatives in terms of broad policy. More comprehensive than incrementalism. Theory, experience, and successive Comparisons used together.
V A Contingency Model of Decision Making W. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 2011 Decision Opportunity No No No No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Sufficient Information? Important? Sufficient Time? Important? Important? Important? Satisficing Truncated Satisficing Adaptive Satisficing Truncated Adaptive Satisficing Adaptive Satisficing Muddling to Adaptive Satisficing Muddling Sufficient Time? Truncated Adaptive Satisficing
End Decision Making in Schools Swift and Smart DM Rules W. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 2011 • Satisficing Rule : Optimizing is impossible in school administration: learn to satisfice. • Framing Rule: Frame problems in positive terms for positive results. • Default Rule: Consider as a first option “doing nothing .” • Simplicity rule : Simplicity trumps complexity; start simple. • Uncertainty Rule: Uncertain environments often require ignoring information; trust your intuition in this regard.
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- Decision Making, W. K. Hoy