Poverty without ebola poverty low ebola scenario

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Poverty without Ebola Poverty, Low Ebola scenario Poverty, High Ebola scenario SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE IN WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES
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60 Figure 29: Poverty impact of the Ebola virus disease in The Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Mali and Niger Source: Authors’ estimation. The Gambia Guinea Bissau Mali Niger Poverty rate (%) Change in poverty (%) 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2010 2011 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2010 2011 Poverty rate (%) Change in poverty (%) 0 2.5 5 7.5 10 0 2 4 6 8 0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60 Poverty rate (%) Change in poverty (%) 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2010 2011 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2010 2011 Poverty rate (%) Change in poverty (%) 0.0 1.5 3.0 4.5 6.0 0 5 10 15 20 35 38.75 42.5 46.25 50 50 55 60 65 70 % change in poverty, High Ebola scenario % change in poverty, Low Ebola scenario Poverty without Ebola Poverty, Low Ebola scenario Poverty, High Ebola scenario SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE IN WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES
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61 Finally, among the three countries that have experienced political crises at the beginning of the decade, Mali will be one of the most severely affected by changes in the incidence of poverty. In 2014, the proportion of poor in Mali’s population could increase by 1.72 to 2.07 percent compared to what would be observed without Ebola. In 2016, these figures will rise to 4.12 percent in the low Ebola scenario and 4.88 percent in the high Ebola scenario. For Senegal , in 2014, the proportion of people living below the national poverty line could increase by 1.4 to 1.8 percent. In 2016, these figures could reach 3.59 percent in the low Ebola scenario and 4.92 percent in the high Ebola scenario (figure 30). Figure 30: Poverty impact of the Ebola virus disease in Nigeria, Senegal and Togo Source: Authors’ estimation. Nigeria Senegal Togo Poverty rate (%) Change in poverty (%) 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2010 2011 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2010 2011 Poverty rate (%) Change in poverty (%) 0 0.375 0.75 1.125 1.5 0.0 1.5 3.0 4.5 6.0 35 38.75 42.5 46.25 50 35 38.75 42.5 46.25 50 Poverty rate (%) Change in poverty (%) 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2010 2011 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 56.0 57.5 59.0 60.5 62.0 % change in poverty, High Ebola scenario % change in poverty, Low Ebola scenario Poverty without Ebola Poverty, Low Ebola scenario Poverty, High Ebola scenario SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE IN WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES
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62 4.3 Food security impact of the Ebola virus disease The food security impact is evaluated with the prevalence of undernourishment measured by the proportion of the population estimated to be at risk of caloric inadequacy. Figure 31 presents the prevalence rate of undernourishment in ECOWAS countries in 2012 and its growth rate between 1992 and 2012. The prevalence of undernourishment is generally decreasing in the West African region. The most significant progress has been observed in Ghana, where the prevalence of undernourishment decreased on average by around 10 percent per year between 1992 and 2012. In the same period, there were declines of around 5 percent per year in Niger, Mali and Benin against an annual fall of 4.22 percent in Nigeria. Côte d’Ivoire and Burkina Faso are the only countries where there has been an increase in the prevalence of undernourishment: from 1992 to 2012, it increased by an average of 2.38 percent in Côte d’Ivoire and 0.65 percent in Burkina Faso. Figure 31: The prevalence of undernourishment in West African countries, 1990–2012
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