Simulate many repetitions (trials)
5.
State your conclusions
Example 1:
Suppose you left your statistics textbook and calculator in you locker, and you need to simulate a random phenomenon
(drawing a heart from a 52card deck) that has a 25% chance of a desired outcome.
You discover two nickels in your pocket
that are left over from your lunch money.
Describe how you could use the two coins to set up you simulation.
Example 2:
Suppose that 84% of a university’s students favor abolishing evening exams.
You ask 10 students chosen at random.
What
is the likelihood that all 10 favor abolishing evening exams?
Describe how you could use the random digit table to simulate
the 10 randomly selected students.
Example 3:
Use your calculator to repeat example 2
Homework:
pg
397 61, 4, 5, 8, 15
This preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.
View Full Document
Chapter 6:
Probability and Simulation: The Study of Randomness
Section 6.2:
Probability Models
Knowledge Objectives:
Students will:
Explain what is meant by
random phenomenon
.
Explain what it means to say that the idea of probability is
empirical
.
Define
probability
in terms of relative frequency
.
Define
sample space
.
Define
event
.
Explain what is meant by a
probability model
.
List the four rules that must be true for any assignment of probabilities.
Explain what is meant by
equally likely outcomes
.
Define what it means for two events to be
independent
.
Give the
multiplication rule for independent events
.
Construction Objectives:
Students will be able to:
Explain how the behavior of a chance event differs in the short and longrun.
Construct a
tree diagram
.
Use the
multiplication principle
to determine the number of outcomes in a sample space.
Explain what is meant by
sampling with replacement
and
sampling without replacement
.
Explain what is meant by {
A
∪
B
} and {
A
∩
B
}.
Explain what is meant by each of the regions in a
Venn diagram
.
Give an example of two events
A
and
B
where
A
∩
B
=
∅
.
Use a
Venn diagram
to illustrate the intersection of two events
A
and
B
.
Compute the
probability of an event
given the probabilities of the outcomes that make up the event.
Compute the probability of an event in the special case of
equally likely outcomes
.
Given two events, determine if they are independent.
Vocabulary:
Empirical – based on observations rather than theorizing
Random – individuals outcomes are uncertain
Probability – longterm relative frequency
Tree Diagram – allows proper enumeration of all outcomes in a sample space
Sampling with replacement – samples from a solution set and puts the selected item back in before the next draw
Sampling without replacement – samples from a solution set and does not put the selected item back
Union – the set of all outcomes in both subsets combined (symbol:
∪
)
Empty event – an event with no outcomes in it (symbol:
∅
)
Intersect – the set of all in only both subsets (symbol:
∩
)
Venn diagram – a rectangle with solution sets displayed within
Independent – knowing that one thing event has occurred does not change the probability that the other occurs
This is the end of the preview.
Sign up
to
access the rest of the document.
 Fall '12
 SonjaCox
 Probability, AP Statistics, Probability theory, Randomness, The Study of Randomness

Click to edit the document details