1 we simulate ar coefficients ψ i1 j from these

  • No School
  • AA 1
  • 60

This preview shows page 47 - 54 out of 60 pages.

- 1 . We simulate AR coefficients { ψ i +1 j } from these posteriors. ECB Working Paper Series No 2381 / March 2020 46
Image of page 47
Figure 10: Euro Area (a) Probability of low economic activity regime: Constant mean model 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 (b) Probability of low economic activity regime: Time-varying mean model 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Note: The blue solid line (right axis) plots the monthly probability of low real activity regime, Pr ( s t = 1), for the corresponding model, and the grey bars (left axis) denote the real GDP quarterly growth. ECB Working Paper Series No 2381 / March 2020 47
Image of page 48
Figure 11: Australia (a) Probability of low economic activity regime: Constant mean model 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 (b) Probability of low economic activity regime: Time-varying mean model 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Note: The blue solid line (right axis) plots the monthly probability of low real activity regime, Pr ( s t = 1), for the corresponding model, and the grey bars (left axis) denote the real GDP quarterly growth. ECB Working Paper Series No 2381 / March 2020 48
Image of page 49
Figure 12: Canada (a) Probability of low economic activity regime: Constant mean model 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 (b) Probability of low economic activity regime: Time-varying mean model 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Note: The blue solid line (right axis) plots the monthly probability of low real activity regime, Pr ( s t = 1), for the corresponding model, and the grey bars (left axis) denote the real GDP quarterly growth. ECB Working Paper Series No 2381 / March 2020 49
Image of page 50
Figure 13: Japan (a) Probability of low economic activity regime: Constant mean model 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 (b) Probability of low economic activity regime: Time-varying mean model 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Note: The blue solid line (right axis) plots the monthly probability of low real activity regime, Pr ( s t = 1), for the corresponding model, and the grey bars (left axis) denote the real GDP quarterly growth. ECB Working Paper Series No 2381 / March 2020 50
Image of page 51
Figure 14: United Kingdom (a) Probability of low economic activity regime: Constant mean model 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 (b) Probability of low economic activity regime: Time-varying mean model 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Note: The blue solid line (right axis) plots the monthly probability of low real activity regime, Pr ( s t = 1), for the corresponding model, and the grey bars (left axis) denote the real GDP quarterly growth. ECB Working Paper Series No 2381 / March 2020 51
Image of page 52
Figure 15: Brazil (a) Probability of low economic activity regime: Constant mean model 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 (b) Probability of low economic activity regime: Time-varying mean model 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Note: The blue solid line (right axis) plots the monthly probability of low real activity regime, Pr ( s t = 1), for the corresponding model, and the grey bars (left axis) denote the real GDP quarterly growth.
Image of page 53
Image of page 54

You've reached the end of your free preview.

Want to read all 60 pages?

  • Fall '19
  • Economics, Recession, Late-2000s recession, GWI

What students are saying

  • Left Quote Icon

    As a current student on this bumpy collegiate pathway, I stumbled upon Course Hero, where I can find study resources for nearly all my courses, get online help from tutors 24/7, and even share my old projects, papers, and lecture notes with other students.

    Student Picture

    Kiran Temple University Fox School of Business ‘17, Course Hero Intern

  • Left Quote Icon

    I cannot even describe how much Course Hero helped me this summer. It’s truly become something I can always rely on and help me. In the end, I was not only able to survive summer classes, but I was able to thrive thanks to Course Hero.

    Student Picture

    Dana University of Pennsylvania ‘17, Course Hero Intern

  • Left Quote Icon

    The ability to access any university’s resources through Course Hero proved invaluable in my case. I was behind on Tulane coursework and actually used UCLA’s materials to help me move forward and get everything together on time.

    Student Picture

    Jill Tulane University ‘16, Course Hero Intern

Stuck? We have tutors online 24/7 who can help you get unstuck.
A+ icon
Ask Expert Tutors You can ask You can ask You can ask (will expire )
Answers in as fast as 15 minutes
A+ icon
Ask Expert Tutors