8 Rodenwaldt and Jusatz (eds.), World Atlas of Epidemic Disease. Official notifications dealt with cases, not deaths, and 14 , 430 , 000 was the total reported. If we assume an average mortality of two-thirds, this gives 9 , 610 , 500 deaths. Since plague was a dramatically under- reported illness for a host of reasons, the real number was much larger, but impossible to know. For India alone, more recent estimates run over 12 million, which is about 25 percent higher than earlier figures. See Arnold, Colonizing the Body, 201 – 203 . 9 For a case study of the impact of plague in a colonial African setting, see Myron Echenberg, Black Death, White Medicine: Bubonic Plague and the Politics of Public Health in Colonial Senegal, 1914–1945 (Portsmouth, NH: Heinemann, 2002 ). The following indicates case rates per ten thousand people during the Third Plague Pandemic: India: 427; Senegal: 269; Hong Kong: 244; Mauritius: 227; Miyamar: 122; Madagascar: 116; Madeira: 108; Uganda: 88; Ecuador: 50; Indonesia: 42 (source: Ernst Rodenwaldt and Helmut J. Jusatz (eds.), Welt-Seuchen Atlas (World Atlas of Epidemic Disease), Hamburg: Falk-Verlag, 1961 : II, 47 – 48 ; and III, 86 – 87) . 10 Rodenwaldt and Jusatz (eds.), World Atlas of Epidemic Disease, II, 47 – 48 ; and III, 86 – 87 .
Echenberg: Initial Years of the Third Bubonic Plague Pandemic 4 3 3 between 1829 and 1833 , or for the great influenza pandemic of 1918 . Because the third plague pandemic coincided with the arrival of germ theory and the new sciences of bacteriology, an implicit connection occurred. In much of the discussion of the third pandemic there is a palpably congratulatory, or even a fully triumphalist tone. Using a mil- itary metaphor so popular in the age of antibiotics, Fabian Hirst, who devoted his entire research life to the study of plague in India, called his then definitive examination of the disease The Conquest of Plague. 11 Similarly, William McNeill holds that plague’s containment “by inter- national teams of doctors constitutes one of the most dramatic tri- umphs of modern medicine.” 12 While the third pandemic has understandably not entered into the Western collective memory as a great calamity, there are three reasons why it deserves review. First, the third pandemic had important envi- ronmental consequences. When it began, the natural reservoirs of the bacterial agent were found in the Himalayan foothills of Central Asia, and perhaps also in the Mongolian steppes. By the middle of the twen- tieth century, the bacillus had acquired permanent reservoirs on every continent of the globe. Second, the pandemic provides the historian with a global canvas for the study of urban social history at the dawn of the twentieth century. While the infected ports were marked by sig- nificant cultural differences, whether Buddhist, Daoist, Muslim, and Christian in Hong Kong; Hindu and Muslim in Bombay; Muslim, Christian, and Jewish in Alexandria; or Christian in Oporto, they also shared features typical of urbanization in 1900 . Indeed, all cities visited by plague between 1894 and 1901 had been transformed by the forces