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Ssuubbjjeecctt ttoo mmooddeelliinngg eerrrroorr

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ssuubbjjeecctt ttoo mmooddeelliinngg eerrrroorr. IIIIIIIIff tthheerree iiss aa tteerrmm ssttrruuccttuurree ttoo tthhee OOOOOOOOAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSS, tthheenn tthhiiss iiss nnoott rreefleecctteedd iinntthhee MMMMMMMMoonnttee CCCCCCaarrlloo pprroocceessss bbeeccaauussee tthhee OOOOOOOOAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSS mmeetthhooddoollooggyy aassssuummeess aa ccoonnssttaanntt OOOOOOOOAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSS.TTTTTTTTTTThhee pprreeppaayymmeenntt mmooddeell iiss vveerryy ccoommpplleexx, ggiivveenn tthhee aammoouunntt ooff uunncceerrttaaiinnttyy rreeggaarrddiinnggiimmppoorrttaanntt vvaarriiaabblleess. TTTTTTTTTTThhee bbeehhaavviioorr ooff bbootthh bboorrrroowweerrss aanndd lleennddeerrss cchhaannggeess oovveerr ttiimmee. TTTTTTTTTTThhuuss,tthhee ggrreeaatteesstt wweeaakknneessss ooff uussiinngg OOOOOOOOAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSS vvaalluuaattiioonn eessttiimmaatteess ggeenneerraatteedd ffrroomm tthhee MMMMMMMMoonnttee CCCCCCaarrlloossiimmuullaattiioonn iiss tthhee ddeeppeennddeennccee oonn tthhee pprreeppaayymmeenntt mmooddeell. AAAAAAssssuummiinngg tthhee mmooddeell iiss ssoouunndd, tthheenniinn tthheeoorryy, iitt sshhoouulldd aallllooww ffoorr iinntteerreesstt rraattee hheeddggiinngg (uussiinngg TTTTTTTTTTTrreeaassuurryy ffuuttuurreess). HHHHHHoowweevveerr, iitt wwoouullddnnoott bbee aa ppeerrffeecctt hheeddggee bbeeccaauussee tthheerree iiss nnoott aa ppeerrffeecctt ccoorrrreellaattiioonn bbeettwweeeenn mmoorrttggaaggee rraatteess aannddTTTTTTTTTTTrreeaassuurryy rraatteess.1111111111111......... WWWWWhheennnnnn eessssssttttttiimmmmmmaattttttiinnnnnngg tttttthhee vvvvvvaalllllluuuuuuee ooooooff mmmmmmoooooorrrrrrttttttggaaggee--------bbaacckkkkkeedd sssssseeccuuuuuurrrrrriittttttiieessssss (MMMMMBBBBBSSSSSSssssss),,,,,,,, wwwwwwhhiicchh ooooooff tttttthhee ffoooooolllllllllllloooooowwwwwwiinnnnnnggssssssttttttaatttttteemmmmmmeennnnnnttttttssssss iissssss ccoooooorrrrrrrrrrrreecctttttt?AAAAA......... PPPPrrrrrreeppppppaayyyyyymmmmmmeennnnnntttttt rrrrrraatttttteessssss tttttteennnnnndd ttttttoooooo bbee hhiigghheerrrrrr oooooonnnnnn ssssssmmmmmmaalllllllllllleerrrrrr mmmmmmoooooorrrrrrttttttggaaggeessssss.........BBBBB......... BBBBBooooootttttthh bbiinnnnnnoooooommmmmmiiaallllll ttttttrrrrrreeeessssss aannnnnndd MMMMMoooooonnnnnnttttttee CCCCCaarrrrrrlllllloooooo ssssssiimmmmmmuuuuuullllllaattttttiioooooonnnnnn ccaannnnnn eeaassssssiillllllyyyyyy aaccccoooooouuuuuunnnnnntttttt ffoooooorrrrrr ppppppaatttttthhddeeppppppeennnnnnddeennnnnnccee.........CCCCC......... GGGGrrrrrreeaatttttteerrrrrr aatttttttttttteennnnnnttttttiioooooonnnnnn sssssshhoooooouuuuuulllllldd bbee ppppppaaiidd ttttttoooooo ssssssiiggnnnnnniiffiiccaannnnnntttttt ddeeccrrrrrreeaasssssseessssss iinnnnnn hhoooooouuuuuussssssiinnnnnngg pppppprrrrrriicceessssss tttttthhaannnnnnssssssiiggnnnnnniiffiiccaannnnnntttttt iinnnnnnccrrrrrreeaasssssseessssss.........

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Term
Spring
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Tags
Derivative, Forward contract, The Next Time, Global Association of Risk Professionals

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