What does a change in the variance of temperature

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What does a change in the variance of temperature mean for society can plan? Understanding changes in temperature variation is important for understanding the consequences of climate change because every decade there is an increase in the average temperature during the month of October (a historically chilly month). The change in variance of temperature means that there A change in the variance means that there can be more severe extremes in weather. Unpredictable changes in temperature/weather can negatively affect agriculture, fragile ecosystems, rainfall, and other temperature-sensitive *** ### Question 3. The Butterfly did it Read the assigned article for this section of the course, Wand et al., "The Butterfly Did It." Focus on the: abstract, introduction, figures, tables and conclusion. You don't need to read every word, but you do need to understand the argument and evidence. This is a very important article written in the discipline's top journal (APSR), so it should give you a good example of how we use statistics in practice to answer questions about politics. Note: they use a slightly different regression model (estimator) than we are discussing in class, but it is a similar enough approach that you should be able to follow the overall argument. ####(a) In your own words, state the authors' research question. Are they trying to answer a causal question? The researchers are trying to show a causal relationship between the butterfly ballot used in Palm Beach County, Florida in the 2000 presidential election and the 2,000+ Democratic voters who voted by mistake for Reform candidate Pat Buchanan. ####(b) What is their independent variable? What is their dependent variable? The independent variable is the type of ballot used during the Presidental elections. The dependent variable is the number of votes that went to Pat Bucanan instead of Al Gore. ####(c) Examine Figure 3. What could you call Palm Beach County (PBC)? Why? (Use a key term we've learned in the course). Palm Beach would be considered an outlier because it does not reflect the majority of the data collected. ####(d) What is the main finding from the paper? In other words, how do the authors answer their research question? What is the main evidence they use to make this claim? Put this in your own words.
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The main finding from the paper is that the Butterfly Ballot caused the PBC county to have a reform majority (Pat Buchanan) instead of a democratic majority (Al Gore). The main evidence they use to support their claim is that PBC county has voted primarily democratic with no significant changes in the political climate of that country. Furthermore, PBC did not have a reform majority in the prior presidential election when the county didn't use a butterfly ballot. ####(e) Examine Table 4. In Palm Beach County, how much more likely was it for a person casting a ballot for the Democratic Senator candidate to also vote for Buchanan on (i) election day; versus, (ii) absentee? What explains this difference in probability according to the authors? Note: this is a simple calculation if you read and understand the table.
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